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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑3 a5 N# v& R9 h- w( r# b2 g
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- D+ I' n0 l9 C* z凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k4 g: a; l( E; y$ C8 D7 `
' T3 g( i, D- G1 B% p( X) Z
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
% v% I5 }- {2 s2 |: U- ^' ?# f% \什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [ z, ^0 B, ]+ B
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& {$ k4 i; U: l0 A( I既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
2 B6 M# z; F1 U) U; N" j& b7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
% X8 r* F/ F$ P9 s& B* \做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `& U$ }1 J# V- s6 ?2 j/ o0 {
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(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
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z5 b; |' i: q5 M# k(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
/ s2 l: j1 P7 b4 ~
% Z2 `" G3 U" W6 x. n) x R- W(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
0 u2 G a# [# U% v A( f- i
+ p2 V+ d1 y o! [0 x7 v6 \. o4 L(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 & v9 I" H& ?' J9 Z3 i9 ]& t
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
, [1 b7 D V4 t" i6 ^- T我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 " U/ U5 m! b# V
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S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 % x) M+ j/ ^0 A- k" P7 f
# z# ]; C9 u9 t7 y5 HS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 2 ]2 z0 G$ d$ w; n6 l8 c, ~
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s! c& L R7 o% l- w' A
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 8 J+ C+ L9 v* m$ D! f# @+ p
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7 S. z9 e3 L# X% R. s5 vS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \- o; y: P2 f6 Y9 D/ J& s6 x4 x
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v1 P& D' K9 a, }5 R* [- x7 O8 `
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
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4 ]- @" t% D' D5 j8 z+ ^& u4 B+ }- A1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l2 p* w% q+ h5 @, }0 e
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1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q- `# I/ b6 O" {0 w2 d
6 ~& p, U; o' T# r Y' U1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
8 p& {; O- Y' Y: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r* h& I2 F2 Q4 l$ R) I
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
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% _: L) g, N+ T% A; r4 J类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j8 m6 D% s) e/ M' M
' r! m* n# q& \6 C3 z; a5 u jS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
: e: @8 \) ]1 Z5 H
; A7 a7 z3 p TS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s8 M! W5 `1 X. m4 p
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: Q9 z, a0 h( @6 ]( ZS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
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S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 / r0 E( ~; K+ {) n$ e
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~4 E% P1 Q5 k* O( ?9 d* |
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o/ w* h( i' Z5 ~# C, e
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好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 ! S) a4 ]* A) c3 }! p$ _
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& {; Z* ^0 f+ V& \3 s0 s* }B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 $ U7 i0 D- }) F; e5 g: W- U
- Z8 v. Q9 k. r% P" _3 g, QF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 ) e s0 B( n; ~' a/ v/ N8 v
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于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
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- V+ A1 _, y. b3 n9 j2 _; DG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
9 |2 N* B: H7 V6 c; V5 {+ O' J6 E+ D$ n) P# X# M
- R% x+ [2 {& J5 ?6 nG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 / n) u1 x( ]8 ~ @& F
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G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
6 \( H% o; M2 B- P: n1 o1 `/ m2 u [8 {4 \0 Y$ v$ `2 k
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
" H( a* p- X5 ?- [# J6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i' k) C' w( Q e' b# d: Z+ V
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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