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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑6 y8 [" q0 @1 ]3 a3 r: x/ O
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凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k' o3 I3 ?) l$ O
; h6 @0 L W+ w0 BG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
1 ^( y4 O# }$ b8 c什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [' G. p2 [6 u8 x3 o2 I
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2 U& O$ R( S" I X) e! X- o% L既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
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2 V6 i3 M! M* j! B8 F做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
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(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
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(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
6 z9 B: v1 @6 G' y
T8 @4 l" ]: Z* h/ y(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
# s8 n/ S- F; X' b& A! _) k4 q1 V# H8 ~
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
9 p9 V* s+ y; l0 P- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _- ?8 H+ X) f$ t5 m- y' b
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
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S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
1 V7 \8 L" r7 _1 H, J
, y0 n4 Z8 _, [# C0 h9 SS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
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S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
\( o! c- i- ~! t9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j8 T0 P5 R/ W6 A# f6 U
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \9 A" T$ w+ N0 |' [; y F
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v5 o" ]% ~6 g" j' T4 X
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 + O. V* T: {% m
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1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l( p' b) e0 A! H7 t) D4 f
1 \( R5 }- y: F
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q' N4 n/ Q+ Y$ {3 o8 [
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1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
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S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
i* ?$ Q: O9 j- U1 Y0 q; T0 `) H/ q# d! A! L* A" K
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
b% i3 a5 c# g( o- k$ h$ q) m2 c" J/ p2 X( d2 I" E
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; 6 J; R) Z1 @$ @, {
. ^. b; q1 e5 ^/ E1 x" aS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s8 u( }" S- v6 q4 D+ q% Y& p5 ^4 D
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1 I- R( |4 A( C8 u4 X& v3 ?/ q4 [S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 % ^8 C4 }8 N3 l$ m: D
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S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 # G! n6 _4 H$ v% T" }1 J
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
5 W8 l2 _- V5 g! R6 S9 w' B% q(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
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好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 8 l2 T0 r- Z# Z) Y" ^
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; e2 Q/ n; M- I4 p' W. \' vB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 9 ~$ Q/ C1 G3 x5 z- R
7 v: s: j r& j, W) k; WF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
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& \, W* M1 ^+ t. d于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
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G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
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' O' n1 ], D) B/ v6 U V: a0 {G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 1 b4 _2 M0 M( C" {
1 P9 O: g S" Y* ~* y
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]- p B7 a( K6 w
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当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \, e8 [7 Y3 a# g. t0 A% I% N& Z
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
! u* W6 u1 v5 T" Z$ |; q通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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