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[体育菠菜心得方法] 凯利指数的计算及在足彩中的运用
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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑3 a5 N# v& R9 h- w( r# b2 g
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- D+ I' n0 l9 C* z凯利指数的计算方法:    ( O1 m2 a  L3 d; F& D  k4 g: a; l( E; y$ C8 D7 `
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G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)
% v% I5 }- {2 s2 |: U- ^' ?# f% \什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系?  H% P+ \' B9 l  U8 T. [  z, ^0 B, ]+ B
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& {$ k4 i; U: l0 A( I既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧!   
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% X8 r* F/ F$ P9 s& B* \做下算术了:    2 i( y$ \  W: ~: {8 \" `& U$ }1 J# V- s6 ?2 j/ o0 {
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(1)SSP:    2.22    3.15    3.01    : `4 u/ N9 a2 y  W3 e8 }9 n
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  z5 b; |' i: q5 M# k(2)立博:    2.10    3.25    3.00   
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% Z2 `" G3 U" W6 x. n) x  R- W(3)威廉:    2.20    3.10    2.87    : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [  t
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+ p2 V+ d1 y  o! [0 x7 v6 \. o4 L(4)易胜博:2.25    3.10    2.95    & v9 I" H& ?' J9 Z3 i9 ]& t
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, [1 b7 D  V4 t" i6 ^- T我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值    " U/ U5 m! b# V
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S1=2.22    B1=3.15    F1=3.01    % x) M+ j/ ^0 A- k" P7 f

# z# ]; C9 u9 t7 y5 HS2=2.10    B2=3.25    F2=3.00    2 ]2 z0 G$ d$ w; n6 l8 c, ~
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S3=2.20    B3=3.10    F3=2.87    8 J+ C+ L9 v* m$ D! f# @+ p
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7 S. z9 e3 L# X% R. s5 vS4=2.25    B14=3.10    F4=2.95    ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y  G+ \- o; y: P2 f6 Y9 D/ J& s6 x4 x
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1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01    =>    r1=0.91   
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4 ]- @" t% D' D5 j8 z+ ^& u4 B+ }- A1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00    =>    r2=0.90    # t0 ?( P  e* X% l2 p* w% q+ h5 @, }0 e
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1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87    =>    r3=0.89    % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q- `# I/ b6 O" {0 w2 d

6 ~& p, U; o' T# r  Y' U1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95    =>    r4=0.90   
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S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41    : W# q# m$ g# T
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% _: L) g, N+ T% A; r4 J类似的计算后,于是:    # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M  j8 m6 D% s) e/ M' M

' r! m* n# q& \6 C3 z; a5 u  jS1'=41    B1'=29    F1'=30;   
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; A7 a7 z3 p  TS2'=43    B2'=28    F2'=30    3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s8 M! W5 `1 X. m4 p
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: Q9 z, a0 h( @6 ]( ZS3'=40    B3'=29    F3'=31   
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S4'=40    B4'=29    F4'=31    / r0 E( ~; K+ {) n$ e
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(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了)    8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o/ w* h( i' Z5 ~# C, e
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好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41    ! S) a4 ]* A) c3 }! p$ _
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& {; Z* ^0 f+ V& \3 s0 s* }B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75    $ U7 i0 D- }) F; e5 g: W- U

- Z8 v. Q9 k. r% P" _3 g, QF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5    ) e  s0 B( n; ~' a/ v/ N8 v
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于是:    / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P  E8 u9 j! |0 ?
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- V+ A1 _, y. b3 n9 j2 _; DG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02    ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
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- R% x+ [2 {& J5 ?6 nG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56    / n) u1 x( ]8 ~  @& F
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G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8    2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
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当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。    好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。    + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
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通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。
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进来学习一下
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这个太深奥了,看不懂
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
这么高深 概率论研究的很好啊
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