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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑; P3 s) U3 s2 W; }1 c2 X( R. Y! y7 l( t
* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c5 p) `! D" g) s8 a# q3 P
凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
1 t2 F5 f7 V: u1 q/ }. o% P9 t- Q8 @, M. x5 X& W( F5 b
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
7 r5 B- p: g* Y/ ?什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
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! F- I* {2 ?/ z7 Y* U/ L& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
0 P- _8 o/ @6 o8 {$ m/ |既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
! F$ R* P9 \$ H! v. l1 A- C7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s) c" t$ Y8 I* d
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `4 w X% k7 o5 b/ N7 H
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(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n7 ~. V# u- U6 K/ Q$ q& {1 C
: G2 _% n7 Q; R* v3 ^(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 ! U( p( {. Z4 V3 N9 C& X% J
1 r4 L" P, n5 ?/ Z; q(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t9 |& u. o/ g# |$ ]/ a
/ [2 A+ V: F5 z& b1 c$ \
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 0 s# H8 `7 k3 p& i, J
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
5 S' S+ L* B c6 B我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 . @+ Q& T9 d+ T" ^
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S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
4 |9 ^: }; c" p, e6 a
. s8 }' I6 k! TS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 ) W( m8 P! F& z
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S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 9 W, V9 I4 l2 m
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
) ~$ L1 R& M+ [' h6 ES4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \6 \- @6 u G- _4 @" [( h5 U
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v, f- d4 w% i* E E# Q
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
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1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l! s7 D4 K- l# b5 e: j
2 ]# G2 N- L7 ]9 ~6 J) P% L1 @1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
3 |$ f2 r t( }$ o9 R4 r$ \; Y. Z' I) J3 R
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
5 J0 O* z" y8 `, x0 o) F: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
9 _- [% l$ k: L) d: b0 K" P. dS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T0 {& f$ P: Y2 v3 V# [+ ~; _; M
7 J" h$ S7 ^0 S4 l类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j! s; X5 b* W4 q' Z
- | P% H2 |+ b3 c7 Q7 x1 R: G3 |0 A
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
% e+ i% V; v. {) w7 k- C5 w8 w- J C8 s ^1 `( K1 h0 Z4 Y8 V; Z
S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
( c2 z( O2 \5 F/ @! a; m' V% T, u, P% O* I: ]4 X3 R$ }9 X7 k
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
( i# g9 r* R V+ U" i1 H+ n8 B6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a! z1 ?2 e; v9 { y
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 ! j. v, t! Q( P! o5 X% C
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~" h2 j: k- p/ h: l
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
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$ t. h/ M/ D0 H4 \3 N) E, ^好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
9 d6 M' z8 }& C6 K$ G. O7 ]$ c: M) q( ], k9 L T& t, H9 f% n1 G+ F+ h4 S9 R) P
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 6 e A# W% r6 X% _8 E, _
+ U2 G% L/ F, G" L) j# z4 vF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
: _7 e3 ?8 ^# S* y) q! x
* g1 }9 P/ t& C# P5 N; J/ P于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?# ~4 \* W/ g8 r# _
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
- I2 {) d7 D' x- E' F. _G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M, |, A( z6 b' l" B$ e: _3 x2 @
+ D$ n) P# X# M/ @3 A: v) x! n' E' _( X" B7 \
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 * T' ~7 @. s* R; l7 M+ S5 m
6 q) c; y+ E9 T2 {5 ?8 cG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
' u" m% h, {9 y2 Q
: k" w" j; ~. A当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
/ Y( h# j2 G) z, K2 _6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i6 D8 h- F/ L% C3 S* t! c& U. d
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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