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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。
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3 {7 Z8 U4 f9 B$ v 3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。' r7 q& `! r6 R& b( y6 v
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0 [/ C9 J% B- `- s 比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续
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5 ]# [/ Q* N7 N% U" I Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。
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9 K7 Q K2 a* b; l! R 尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。9 Z7 G2 [ l" g! ?* Y( d
- {& l1 E, O" ^3 c7 {! u: s4 I 市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。
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针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，; \9 U/ z7 h0 w& t
" T3 @$ K. w# d% Z* Y价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。
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“从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。” l: D) h% t4 x# N$ F
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$ m8 e# }, ?8 S 知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。
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“$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在
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1 C7 t7 N( ?6 l$ ]/ m( X积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”
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( z1 B7 i( }# G' k1 `/ @ 早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。* ?: z( h8 c4 m- t3 ?
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。' b% [0 d/ j4 ^ E+ B* s$ w1 ~
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比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势
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. |/ W" R( X2 t0 M. C 当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。
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0 p4 A" n: C- u R 监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。
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# M+ {7 O2 G+ n1 B( M 该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，; ^. y% B$ S( Y" n' j+ L
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市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”/ K- K7 F# J& t/ `1 B
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