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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。9 t y+ o: M( }& t0 u9 y$ K
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瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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1 C% H ]7 y* q) ]: D6 \衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
% p% E" W$ p- v美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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& o, v( b1 K8 q6 J0 C( A融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。7 Z7 G( b$ y! V
`2 N' i: Y' R+ Y0 k+ `. J+ x9 N过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益: s$ y- T7 O( |2 U
- m( B, M+ U, n9 Z% T7 N率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。
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7 |3 K9 @! X( M- f: A! G: [3 M3 _然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更3 Q# D* t: ]! ~
2 |/ r5 @) c; j; T2 F$ Z是表示：$ m' L/ R5 d; b4 O1 B9 L" \
4 _) L3 |* H6 }8 {这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币' t( D9 L ?% o+ M/ K* z% d
( A9 @8 _/ `+ I% v特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史6 T0 y' l2 x( N! q5 U6 z
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标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：9 v/ g6 y. R6 o# b+ {
8 i8 K0 L$ J' K- R0 p: \周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。
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周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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' e* G. a6 P$ M F; |$ f9 F周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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收益率冲高回落。3 _# D# A0 e) e# X& S1 [
% m. [ t/ Y' n0 P3 Y# @+ J周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。
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$ G, c% q" K1 y6 b1 _7 \" r周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。8 s3 ? M0 n9 t2 }6 x: C8 P* |* |
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，& @: B! L/ f$ f
4 u: p$ U3 g8 r; h+ i+ I3 X是的，这正是我们所看到的。"! ^7 X0 `" M7 y) `" ] B' `
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根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去7 A! N- _" h) K" h' {7 t: N: f
7 i6 S y+ ^+ o. `- r年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。
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; Z1 v9 R$ b3 P; yRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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