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[lastpost] => 2805274 随着比特币抛售放缓，大型买家开始入场。（转） 1770742209 垂钓园
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
V( u( v; F& S1 s# D# Y- ~美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益# w' V' e- h0 Q( @; u/ c6 V+ a
- u4 h0 y1 c. f8 p8 r6 x率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。8 P/ q- q" K- N1 f0 O: i6 `
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然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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2 C- J4 i+ z- w3 v5 z* R. W- D8 L4 Y长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更8 E' {- f& A/ P
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是表示：2 v! T% s3 o3 J* m, f; I
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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/ U3 r4 @) X2 q b d2 {特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史/ i; J& C- h5 ]7 ~* K* V% U' d
7 K) P. O" I& `( q/ V6 D标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。) L8 G i" B5 o/ _$ u9 ^ ~& @: H
" s% h0 ]5 ^# R7 G; R" ?7 K9 d7 B0 t周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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* G$ }; O3 U" s周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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! x/ i7 B3 t. ^7 e3 U" L) a4 R收益率冲高回落。+ J0 M a* ?1 h+ J4 W
; z( \/ T- x: [/ E4 N$ m! k周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。
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周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。/ I, w& G" e7 q
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4 S2 D$ d9 I. r$ aLoomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，& }6 _% E7 ?2 w% A
9 X5 T! K2 F" B2 F0 p, g0 w; V$ e3 u+ w是的，这正是我们所看到的。"
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3 I) P' a7 }6 E+ |: U: z根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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6 Y0 q7 w8 d0 l: {年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。4 W8 l# A. t5 Q& o7 e% g6 `
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+ i7 f7 v1 y0 B' S5 R; [/ n/ URenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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