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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心- k! @1 s! s9 {; f
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衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
: e7 @0 {. Y5 Q5 \美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金+ Q: i% f$ D" u- z7 S& ^
1 D$ b* ?; z7 O8 A融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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5 f$ s/ e+ a' V过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益
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率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。
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& w: r9 _4 `2 V3 b+ Q7 E3 P9 {然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国8 z& P" Q8 v- ]$ t" y3 i. w
4 j# X6 x' o* M3 N6 ]4 q. ]长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更" P& w* i8 ^9 b* u* w1 k
& ~" g1 Y4 Q0 e ` {9 p是表示：; m9 |1 C, e9 R* U& G, e) ], Z' f
$ U& L$ K. z, ~2 c7 k9 B: G; m这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币( N2 U# L- a. |! ]! @! D+ U
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史- |7 ]) H Z- F% r
! @8 |0 V( o4 C. i& I标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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8 z6 ^9 }. T0 u9 S2 ^; I! n% y周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。
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周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。( k; w# O$ H1 J$ D, h
; W: s8 f8 ?6 p7 W5 P周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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收益率冲高回落。
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7 P1 E, b& A, Q, d4 m2 k周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。' u! e, k7 i8 H4 o' e3 o) E9 o
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周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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/ F0 i6 y; V+ PLoomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，
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) N3 @1 P7 y- U. s8 s是的，这正是我们所看到的。"% O' V& Z4 q/ D4 t6 ^( g/ x
" m) C- A6 M D$ z- t. a* q. P根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去6 B$ L$ U/ o% E4 C0 J. n
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。8 n: n; t" C2 C* r$ x
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. ~/ E$ o: t, {. r
$ N. v! Y0 m# V) n: sRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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