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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑
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) `9 c+ ?9 Z( A- Z! f其实原文标题不是这样的
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! Q9 }; |8 O: s- a) s8 X8 F这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!+ ^/ n, F- t- I' w* b
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...3 p* G9 h8 V. J6 p s
他希望能和上帝来场赌局。
; j0 `: a0 P! N+ `: c! Y4 S3 J- R4 h# l0 G- v# M* X" y
「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。; Y* M0 T, B2 F. Q0 G
+ q1 P2 L+ P w; m& s. g& [% `; D
「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」
0 }1 C( C$ C8 L* P8 D+ t$ c5 d, U
) P5 x( p; v% \+ j「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」
1 x: L' [7 i* V: }「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
( [+ E' s$ d& b+ s, H+ |% h8 q+ L
上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
# [% ?) z, s2 ^* v; g7 j
! x ^2 ]9 a. [' s% V1 ~接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，5 L1 O# y" W1 w7 L, w1 e" {
因此铜板较容易出现正面。
1 E; K( a0 |3 c7 f; \+ b长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。
! Z, X$ W0 f' N4 V; d因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。+ f& u( c r: q" p r
心想赢定了。2 g" a& K! Q, P' U" s
, }, a/ S( n- P没想到开始不到半刻钟，
4 L& Q5 b2 G- H- K* `7 A赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」3 M) g5 a, B+ J
% R2 L. g1 Z( ^1 l6 ^, s赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，% E# z8 C, Y8 C7 U
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。) @( w m( b' [* B$ I1 c- X6 e
8 X8 [& F+ \' ]/ c
赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
6 a* ]" [% K. |9 I) }! @" E他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
' }* x0 l! v- E( q6 c; j- [* r
上帝回答道：
! m) A Z+ t) Q/ f& M3 M「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」
1 ~% `2 M. F# x. H0 x. l5 b「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
6 Q" H3 z; d+ s/ q: ] @" y& Y「而不是先发生在我身上。」
3 q' n+ B2 g" N n ]% [% D4 Q0 W/ w% n5 Y' F8 w
赌徒恍然大悟，
, b& g" Q' O t8 |, l' j' x; [原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，
! P/ A. h" b$ ~) h+ ], l; Q竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！ o6 I8 L) T7 ~
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」$ A$ d! S+ Z/ U' W' f# J5 b. a+ |3 t0 C
上帝说完便不见踪影。 % L& M! J. m* n& K1 Q# h
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，6 Q+ M, A- s/ P; e
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，" P5 w1 m# A+ ~" Q; l9 s: J
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，5 n: j" U1 o0 C( E! W4 s- D2 F
对赌徒十分有利。
( I6 ?8 L+ t( Q! B Z 8 i5 F" L( k- i2 v; X' c
但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，9 Q$ I7 _5 w+ p% f
在还没掷到1000次之前，
6 h; u4 d6 t7 x o/ v4 e仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
9 s O% g/ k" V& x
% G7 {$ S$ G; i# s 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。0 S9 _! H2 I5 w4 x) f: _
- S, s# n4 ?0 P5 c6 B 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
6 T9 ] E% X, a0 V) J d
9 K! {0 k: m5 r: _' a* [; E. g0 Z7 w 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，! ?7 O4 K4 J) K" Y- V3 i; H3 o. o
7 W9 K8 ~! a) a3 o 永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！
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