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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑
# f! m* [1 U: a( d( ^
5 G0 w! Y$ |% c) l( g6 G其实原文标题不是这样的" t- b, g4 K/ b! `1 |/ N
5 _' M" n6 b, b3 A' ?这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!3 z1 W3 l _ H
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$ G' B2 |% W( V% h2 }( e
有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...6 F U3 L- w; F+ R
他希望能和上帝来场赌局。/ @; |! O9 `2 y+ T
9 e8 \. b( c7 c9 m- [5 v 「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。+ Y2 A, Q3 T- ?
: B/ h. X6 d/ ^ 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」4 l; {9 v2 n- l8 S
) `/ A `1 O$ t- ^5 G* \: U「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 + W) S0 `% i w7 b2 {
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」+ O0 I' a' }6 w& F' @" b- Q
- E5 n- {+ `6 |' O9 S
上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
1 l0 E9 q. r% A$ D
8 y2 y8 _9 Y( I- n4 s/ D$ E& H6 l接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，! p6 u9 \" a. U
因此铜板较容易出现正面。
, d: ?+ }# j$ u9 h8 N/ q长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。
1 O6 A8 T' _2 c' C& h因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
D' W4 {( P1 U( H心想赢定了。! U5 ^) @/ y% {+ j' @
7 S) K0 J8 `# d+ g7 r; _
没想到开始不到半刻钟，
. H! m! A$ A! }& \赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」" f; ^: h3 M8 H; d
; G' z* i8 T- u. C$ C( F* N! Z
赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，
9 K* [/ g3 x, i( H4 E4 ~但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。$ t c+ t* s+ d5 W, W5 o
# F" B* w& ~+ R$ e0 R. C赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
. t; B) v! }" Z: u1 Y7 u9 K; e他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
( c) m2 _0 a" [* j; X( o
上帝回答道：
2 g& H9 }2 G% I8 ?; r「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」& Y( l7 V. \" K3 |1 q( I/ u
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
[3 ?( ~7 q X2 N2 Q# O9 I「而不是先发生在我身上。」2 m u6 t1 Y, f5 y) `% M
( o7 C: b6 [ @( t* b
赌徒恍然大悟，
( o( Z' `: x/ k: b; x原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，
5 a2 o# ]7 J: v; V竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！) I2 \ ], I$ x Q
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」8 G3 S3 ]9 d( i4 a
上帝说完便不见踪影。 ) U$ N9 t' i- e% u( p/ k5 Q) y7 k/ H
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，, l3 l8 Y h* F; V" A
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，
1 ?: w5 a4 x) j! p( d1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，# \5 J1 N9 e: {: V7 N1 m. c
对赌徒十分有利。
; |9 |- h( [7 N J4 n3 r & }( k" H: t3 y/ d# i
但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，
* A1 }+ R( {; t( u9 i在还没掷到1000次之前，0 W8 l# {# z" x
仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。3 K. Z5 r6 B' N) `2 j% ]* A( ~
( \9 P2 f( S2 A$ B+ g* s, Z 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。
8 O" E, o( ]4 i I4 ]0 E
. h: p( A! C1 W2 m% n 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。. V" q1 ]1 w9 g, U& m
1 K/ U. A1 Y; |+ K: ^ 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，
1 A- f/ k W+ X4 r
! i2 ?" T1 j' d4 i$ Y6 l 永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ " O$ c6 T5 F5 ~
% n( n' a* v3 C3 h, G1 ~" @
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