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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑6 S" H, u* n. \$ i, j
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凯利指数的计算方法: ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k) a) q! _* t6 B: o3 N4 H
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G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)& ^+ C, b% I: e( q O& p7 z
什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [- s: m9 P B, f7 u/ X8 M) W
1 d$ A/ W4 F( b2 c1 H( x) p& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h3 v! S) ~2 G: G W
既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧! 1 v4 D2 p& [& [1 Y8 i
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, v* X1 F1 }. o' ^4 E3 S做下算术了: 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `7 z/ I" ?* ?" ^9 e8 \; A
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7 ]( Z4 Y' F: R7 b: z$ f(1)SSP: 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n# M4 a1 E0 a- {$ Y+ Y$ G7 j
5 h& g, }/ i& U. {5 `4 ]
(2)立博: 2.10 3.25 3.00
w, t7 P+ f% H" z( N) I5 c, e% X: J5 b
(3)威廉: 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
3 I: ~: T; l* u i
" k: k/ N# Q" x( N; q(4)易胜博:2.25 3.10 2.95
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我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 ; d* a4 S$ F$ b+ e
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S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
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S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 ( Y% A( G4 g, r
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S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 % |) L5 l$ ^- ^4 t; z7 j2 E$ F# P) b
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
2 q0 A2 x' d2 y7 s3 pS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
- w, W L+ O4 b) v( D8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v0 c3 @: u1 z# H! v& ~
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 , K: N' @( J4 z7 s& [
3 U9 C: ?, o4 S4 w, f5 [! v1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
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1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q. n3 |, J+ S/ U7 N0 k6 Q) ]9 }
2 h4 W2 X! g! Y9 o3 I( L* ^( c1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
, |) [* M! g% y% \: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r4 u; v, O5 X9 N6 Q8 H! V
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T. b, G2 m9 d% X& q) @
" W$ P/ d) U/ b" j类似的计算后,于是: # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
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) h4 m: i: Y, x: P# y4 ]5 \S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
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; z) N/ C9 | Y t9 X, ~6 |S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s$ Q5 ]( f5 {5 h8 V: z
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U/ k) O8 b4 @ k/ d: n# z% `S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 # Y5 f6 b9 C( x [- T7 U |7 X
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, }2 H8 v% s9 p5 y( NS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 7 V1 d9 f/ |: @8 }3 T
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~3 W$ y2 {* H- {) o% r! r& `4 b3 j
(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o0 I$ J8 ?1 m i! G" _
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好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
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1 H5 k$ o& T Q" k" N; k; H& U ?B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
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F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 4 S: ^7 O$ N, Z/ x9 h/ a
+ ?. ~) _$ m$ ~4 } V' m于是: / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?4 z! K. }$ F9 b( Z$ D" n# x
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
* e4 Z+ B& o0 f7 MG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
! i3 U& k3 i# h8 \ d+ D$ n) P# X# M
( {4 j' R5 G2 J3 J( _. D7 eG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
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! e0 M! h. i E3 n5 c0 ?: sG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]3 W7 T4 ~3 O( w& j
d- B6 o* M1 Z5 l5 [
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
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通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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