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大小球盘本质上就是与全场入球总数相关的盘口,计算它的依据就是进球数的概率。
9 Z5 }# z8 S( h5 p4 t我们先引入下列符号:
+ D- p/ B4 P0 \2 s5 wPn(n=0;1;……;x)表示在一场比赛中可能出现的各个进球数的概率。
8 Y; P: q4 V4 E- ^即:P0=全场进0球的概率;P1=全场进1球的概率;……。7 b' e$ M& g. ]" u1 @- e+ t
那么 ∑Pn=P0+P1+P2+……+Px=100%。. T+ x# W! q* R, I" ]9 x$ C' @ ]7 I
Bo表示大球的投注总数,D表示投注大球的回报总数额,O(Over)表示大球的赔率。, l" Q/ J6 z7 @- O
Bu表示小球的投注总数,X表示投注小球的回报总数额,U(Under) 表示小球的赔率。
8 D Z% Q* f' L/ X
7 S$ |5 }6 C9 e" F$ l. }6 s) g1 Z在一场比赛中,我们以G表示大小球的盘口(G为任意数);K表示全场入球总数的结果。
* Q2 n# m7 u; Q6 _: O在任意盘口G下,全场比赛会出现如下3个结果:9 Y$ c5 B* u! [, b6 X& S" \- K
1:K>G 即出现我们通常所说的大球。+ E# H1 \' h, B, u, I! H* @5 S0 H
2:K=G 即出现我们通常所说的走盘。
7 N, N3 z& I1 M" g1 L3:K<G 即出现我们通常所说的小球。( ?; Q1 A' y, s1 m ?9 w3 G
4 f% Z) P& I$ x: i' Q那么在此盘口下投注大球的回报总数额为:* x. H; j& d5 Y& K# G) ^
D1:(K>G)={Bo* O 即赢盘获得与此盘口相对应赔率的回报。
/ l+ k2 P& z2 t" hD2:(K=G)={Bo 即走盘退回本金。5 ?& j) `% n# v) E$ \2 h8 g- \
D3:(K<G)={0 即输盘失去本金。/ N9 h5 i6 M0 H( i
( B! E I' W3 x2 F9 ?& `同理在此盘口下投注小球的回报总数额为:
* B/ i& u: ]4 w8 ?X1:(K>G)={0 即输盘失去本金。! b* ~& H6 {# u) M/ E- `" ^' S
X2:(K=G)={Bu 即走盘退回本金。" Y, z0 V Y! _2 m! K; C8 c
X3:(K<G)={Bu*U 即赢盘获得与此盘口相对应赔率的回报。
5 G1 O6 H ?. i4 m
2 T( K7 Y1 ~2 s' e/ i, {下面分别描述大小球盘为2.5球;2.5/3球;3球;3/3.5球时的大小球盘赔率计算方法,其余盘口可以由此类推。" t) o; G9 @4 v; ^$ K
1 y3 }# q, C8 e8 [; U
1:大小球盘为2.5球(G=2.5)" T9 p; h! ^7 S7 N* J
) e8 d M0 u. }2 z- s6 ~5 d在大小球盘为2.5球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:) x6 p" A# r0 ^" Y4 y% Q
K=0 D0=0
. r0 W' i! N6 n, Y' H* rK=1 D1=0 . q/ n: i/ J& @" d
K=2 D2=06 {5 `! f; d1 x- ^; x9 E2 Q
K=3;4;....x D3+= {Bo* O 0 n1 B, c' j1 V4 F
) k0 V4 @0 H) \' h" d8 c
投注大球的期望回报总数为:∑D=Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2)=Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2)
8 g, w% o0 Z; F6 {; }" o e在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。* R' O: G- e( i$ X# f
∑D=Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2)=Bo' U# n: g$ w- A, Q
O*(1-P0-P1-P2)=1
5 E- c% R0 D K 在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=1/(1-P0-P1-P2)
" }: M* c. n1 p) b 或者表述为 O=1/∑Pn----------(这里n=3;4;……x)
$ s; [* L" z( H8 l" z, _* O& V' ]& [' N3 ?6 G
在大小球盘为2.5球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:
1 x5 e( m' F( n+ TK=0 X0=Bu*U w4 }) ~6 o7 u# e2 \
K=1 X1=Bu*U
! w. n0 \4 m/ c( a( E; o2 dK=2 X2=Bu*U + j2 N$ G! W! s$ u7 d4 ~
K=3;4;....x X3+=0" {2 I' _5 i4 H$ n$ P0 o4 X2 L/ f
" r: ]& F! i1 }' Q# r
投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U
9 N5 k- R4 p% d8 E0 y在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。8 `3 @, z3 T6 {, Z" M
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U=Bu
1 w$ A2 E8 V5 _, G! E! C8 V! H: _ U*(P0+P1+P2)=1
: Y* J: e2 e P2 u0 w7 p5 O/ y 在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=1/(P0+P1+P2)6 }! ?9 L( N3 \ K1 P, v/ a% y$ u
$ X; G& e+ u8 `/ ]8 s
2:大小球盘为3球(G=3)- K" V% n. v# X( Z! I
8 C; y$ x+ ?4 y l3 [) T/ a! }8 ^1 y z在大小球盘为3球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:/ d( v+ F7 |& D2 F/ a" D# y
K=0 D0=0 1 u# C0 ^0 f% D1 \" o
K=1 D1=0 % P- z# P/ H7 r" p) a( ?; s
K=2 D2=0
$ ~; ?* D0 q5 A) kK=3; D3= Bo' v) p+ m9 g+ M8 D
K=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O
% W+ k) l% {/ f6 W( s P- Q' ^# b: \
投注大球的期望回报总数为:3 G- ]4 s# u2 S# G( s% ?9 y
∑D=P3* Bo +Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)= P3* Bo +Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
* h- w4 Z# y0 t/ B' ]) Q" y9 s1 D在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
" p( S8 f2 t3 m. z, D' m6 e& Z ∑D=P3* Bo +Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo
% y+ z6 {- k7 c; r P3+ O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1
2 H$ [, h& `) }6 C 在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
/ ^; ?, F0 K1 \: u7 H6 M 或者表述为 O=(1-P3)/∑Pn----------(这里n=4;5;……x)# C( g7 ^4 n) _" X) J; ^/ u2 X. w! R. z4 u
6 \/ f7 o' |. g
在大小球盘为3球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:
U9 K3 C* _+ m6 l! F& EK=0 X0=Bu*U
& x9 _2 K8 k: k- TK=1 X1=Bu*U % \. X; E/ P2 R7 E/ R- H. q1 c
K=2 X2=Bu*U
) H3 V3 [2 G3 FK=3 X3= Bu
& X' O9 _& V( h* dJ=4;5;....x X4+=0' M% h R7 T$ R' ~, v5 o
1 K* }) M3 R/ D/ u投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu
- P$ k4 G- M9 l# T2 k0 _% {0 K在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
" _3 o% J& T' p2 f: F- z ∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu =Bu' G% f& H" f; @
U*(P0+P1+P2)+P3=1
+ M/ Q+ s; z. S& q- o. j 在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3)/(P0+P1+P2)/ L: Y3 n# J/ h9 Z8 l
7 c' ]- v1 N/ F' i: e5 h3:大小球盘为2.5/3球(G=2.5/3)& J: ]1 v$ A+ K% i; i
7 z) s: @) J. z& O
在大小球盘为2.5/3球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:1 _# s" s0 v7 ]7 A' Q- W
K=0 D0=0 9 Y% G% W/ i' v; e
K=1 D1=0 ) J8 r1 B5 p9 v1 ?; ` K7 Q
K=2 D2=0& J+ R: Z0 W3 R6 q
K=3; D3= Bo/2+ O*Bo/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在2.5球盘赢盘)0 Z1 T9 x" U0 f9 V& Z
K=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O
: i1 g. {2 r1 ~0 |: e6 C2 I; L$ W* d0 K
6 @9 K' P4 d- }# s投注大球的期望回报总数为:
8 s9 G2 j3 i, U- u( i+ u; P ∑D=P3* Bo/2 +P3* O*Bo/2+Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)
" `! R; J# x& w6 E = P3* Bo/2 +P3* O* Bo/2+Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3); `% o `0 j9 P# R1 s
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。& `+ W6 t8 q- b5 k& q# m
∑D=P3* Bo/2 +P3* O* Bo/2+Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo' }: D4 M4 n7 O y# X$ u8 _
P3/2+ O* P3/2+O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1
6 U( j7 g( h3 j9 t; H/ i O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3+ P3/2)=1- P3/20 ?. L$ F$ L' P. I+ C
在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3/2)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3/2)
: ^4 u) \+ m5 W& r; x* v* f; K% C
1 Y, E& z( z- q6 u5 ~7 ?1 m$ f在大小球盘为2.5/3球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:0 l9 q3 f# r( `7 g
K=0 X0=Bu*U
: }+ V9 G8 H8 i8 d& ?K=1 X1=Bu*U + l0 K5 Z) |5 e. P; @
K=2 X2=Bu*U 3 Z( C0 m5 C; m) e& r
K=3 X3= Bu/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在2.5球盘输盘)& i/ }% m- X7 Z3 ~
J=4;5;....x X4+=0
9 k2 I8 j" ~% p8 A2 Q F& b' v, C5 J& v/ L9 ~( K ~) b* R
投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2
5 D) @: T' W$ K# y: Z2 ~在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
6 a3 `# F8 }1 J1 J" v; H( I ∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2 =Bu
. h1 e% v9 T' O! H( |6 n U*(P0+P1+P2)+P3/2=1
1 V$ X. {1 W! o3 N# o 在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3/2)/(P0+P1+P2)( N2 {# f9 a6 P
* x* L; l/ V0 L
4:大小球盘为3/3.5球(G=3/3.5)
. n* T8 B! O, M* S) l8 Z
8 G" b1 u, J; D/ J, a2 \, ^6 B8 t在大小球盘为3/3.5球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:. p8 O# K3 I1 G+ S# e
K=0 D0=0 ) H |9 D* j: H( F {
K=1 D1=0
# r' {+ g/ L& ~) j, n1 {. pK=2 D2=0
W3 |1 x# Y* m. {" {+ K# P4 {K=3; D3= Bo/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在3.5球盘输盘)
6 A9 _& J" S: q9 IK=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O
5 X. ~4 |* c% i* Q$ e9 C+ r3 X c2 D7 k
投注大球的期望回报总数为:% M# y- i( A- g' D! n( K
∑D=P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)
+ M: W! ?& ]" d4 v/ `- b) ~/ ?9 W = P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
* ]* m3 W% @- x- a在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。+ p3 b2 M/ S* b5 u+ Z' q
∑D=P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo9 f2 x& m- j2 I, G
P3/2+ O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1- t; l/ {$ b; A8 m8 w# v
O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1- P3/2
8 N9 Q4 b' m3 e5 d( c6 d 在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3/2)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)" n6 B+ S ^ c9 |1 d4 x. p0 t9 C
或者表述为 O=(1-P3/2)/∑Pn----------(这里n=4;5;……x)
/ o" y. u: ^( I8 V& x x" T
, A: ~8 A T0 V, T( Z' ^8 Y' U在大小球盘为3/3.5球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:
% ]- r3 x. Y( o$ \( Y; N! |6 N. ?K=0 X0=Bu*U
# @2 M& h% ]% o: ^; wK=1 X1=Bu*U - E# q8 u! j7 S
K=2 X2=Bu*U
4 k( ^3 D1 a o& F+ sK=3 X3= Bu/2+U* Bu/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在3.5球盘赢盘)7 b6 W5 J D; _, @% c! U
J=4;5;....x X4+=0- ~, N% v# y1 g3 |% a
* T; h7 _3 i& d: {- X投注小球的期望回报总数为:9 f+ p) V" g6 I5 z, e: N8 N# T
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2+ P3*U* Bu/2- m# F' ~6 S. e3 {
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。# ?: k. t* H; m4 s% d
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2+ P3*U* Bu/2 =Bu
' C+ K: e! k7 d4 x4 Q U*(P0+P1+P2+ P3/2)+P3/2=1
4 B# m6 B" z) M" g6 b" e 在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3/2)/(P0+P1+P2+P3/2)
. w! s9 E$ _/ A+ w
# s$ d: j8 P8 _8 A, e* b8 Q* U/ {/ r1 D! y' W/ B
一场足球比赛就是以主,客进球数最终是多少来体现其结果的.
& M' R$ ]( s" x8 A) t大部分博项的赔率都可以通过进球概率这个基本数据实现互相转换!0 J6 K0 G" [' N6 F
+ P1 R A% I$ n8 @: I( }+ fP0 P1 P2 P3 P41可以由统计函数生成,也可以由开盘赔率计算得出,比如用波胆赔率计算。(这种方法计算出的Pn值有一定的偏差) |
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