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大小球盘本质上就是与全场入球总数相关的盘口,计算它的依据就是进球数的概率。# P0 j/ M7 M: A
我们先引入下列符号:
0 D: i( Q* _% l) G: A4 }1 U! jPn(n=0;1;……;x)表示在一场比赛中可能出现的各个进球数的概率。8 S/ S D0 @& I! C/ G
即:P0=全场进0球的概率;P1=全场进1球的概率;……。
$ J0 [* m- G/ b; K: }/ b0 W那么 ∑Pn=P0+P1+P2+……+Px=100%。
* o# H7 m! J0 l. s8 c. @% KBo表示大球的投注总数,D表示投注大球的回报总数额,O(Over)表示大球的赔率。
$ @* y9 J. G. O- h% J# H0 hBu表示小球的投注总数,X表示投注小球的回报总数额,U(Under) 表示小球的赔率。7 [0 J' O8 ]% d0 E" R) N- H
* O) W) z- n- Z$ P; ?0 [ f在一场比赛中,我们以G表示大小球的盘口(G为任意数);K表示全场入球总数的结果。/ g- L1 H" c- |5 z
在任意盘口G下,全场比赛会出现如下3个结果:: x+ z. y6 D2 M6 c
1:K>G 即出现我们通常所说的大球。* P8 y0 L( b" X% y: S: m
2:K=G 即出现我们通常所说的走盘。
; {* t1 o9 l4 L( R8 @0 y3:K<G 即出现我们通常所说的小球。 R/ t' o6 ?) p' }# e2 x
" a8 o) e9 {3 D! X5 t, w8 x
那么在此盘口下投注大球的回报总数额为:' o, }' R3 M8 M4 ^6 ^5 I- R {
D1:(K>G)={Bo* O 即赢盘获得与此盘口相对应赔率的回报。* ~3 o/ K, F& O: c$ K4 u2 p& r. p* s9 N
D2:(K=G)={Bo 即走盘退回本金。
4 L0 Q( ]: r0 z2 k. ~1 i( \D3:(K<G)={0 即输盘失去本金。& c7 d$ l; c2 j8 m
4 d2 P) v9 B; [+ Z
同理在此盘口下投注小球的回报总数额为:
3 F4 _; o, t7 R( H" ?) m6 kX1:(K>G)={0 即输盘失去本金。1 P! ]6 d/ N+ o( j
X2:(K=G)={Bu 即走盘退回本金。
* g( S4 f0 ^0 a5 u- ~" P% ~X3:(K<G)={Bu*U 即赢盘获得与此盘口相对应赔率的回报。. c/ `1 h5 y& k8 X+ S; A
% m( E% Z3 X2 u) O# h; x: I下面分别描述大小球盘为2.5球;2.5/3球;3球;3/3.5球时的大小球盘赔率计算方法,其余盘口可以由此类推。
5 Z, n! O8 U( t8 _# t9 X" n k( s- M6 j! k& a* G8 m
1:大小球盘为2.5球(G=2.5)7 p1 C+ |' d! m6 A5 U/ X3 S# E! K
9 w1 N2 z/ x. z. F7 g" C9 w
在大小球盘为2.5球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:9 I! U0 o* q: G% O& S5 K4 R
K=0 D0=0 T1 @2 {- c3 Z/ y. f1 W \
K=1 D1=0
4 \6 t0 L. k; t4 k+ M1 F: wK=2 D2=0
9 C6 R" t2 D9 i! @5 }K=3;4;....x D3+= {Bo* O
+ D6 D. _9 T& b F" Y7 o& W% ` L$ A. X6 ~! \. R: e
投注大球的期望回报总数为:∑D=Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2)=Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2)
# h' l, b7 V5 g0 ?在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
; N) c" h/ o( |$ q6 s ∑D=Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2)=Bo
^& S" A- v* `; E O*(1-P0-P1-P2)=16 D: j& A; a; n7 b0 A7 _& y6 t
在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=1/(1-P0-P1-P2)3 l* S3 |$ E1 B3 m) n( R) p$ d
或者表述为 O=1/∑Pn----------(这里n=3;4;……x)5 q5 x! V, K% I
) ~) u& w7 F% C& R: o
在大小球盘为2.5球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:4 A& E, W. z! S4 i( s
K=0 X0=Bu*U
# ?, W$ I( G& ZK=1 X1=Bu*U
( {2 b+ j; ^/ Y) t/ K& s% g3 rK=2 X2=Bu*U
, R* Z9 `& m8 z# P+ b6 w" g. \K=3;4;....x X3+=0( E |5 I1 Z0 D; I( p
1 J0 r. e0 f" Z* G$ L9 g) l8 a
投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U6 j5 r G8 ~ y1 X" t4 Z
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。 E, \4 [. F+ e5 T; h5 A4 B
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U=Bu
4 j; I! q4 f: \# U% G" v U*(P0+P1+P2)=1
* A, \% F: a" c' A+ ] 在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=1/(P0+P1+P2)
( k0 i- g* F/ H2 W
7 |1 x6 ?+ r. k+ Y: z/ `2:大小球盘为3球(G=3)1 `5 M* a- T- u6 ?: j+ q9 M
5 I6 i$ V, `. v. n1 O在大小球盘为3球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:3 q' _7 M! q7 d" u' D- o3 d
K=0 D0=0
1 k3 O; }+ Z1 j, G+ [' s1 nK=1 D1=0
; L# ?7 @8 K \1 n4 p& `K=2 D2=0
* M9 d: B! v; _ t! s/ D+ L, NK=3; D3= Bo: B) w! s0 o0 J% c
K=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O
% C8 d- {0 |1 B' ?' c* ~$ O7 t& T3 A6 N6 [6 x
投注大球的期望回报总数为:
I/ n1 |$ t5 I1 Z4 ]∑D=P3* Bo +Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)= P3* Bo +Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
4 ~5 J$ v, J! Z7 }+ [6 c6 c6 J2 I在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
g! `& o g( @7 p; A' ] ∑D=P3* Bo +Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo
$ d. s {; u2 N! S5 H: W/ c P3+ O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=16 r9 V9 b8 a9 l, ^) V2 B H
在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)% N; D2 O. S5 m: W2 ^8 m4 o9 {$ s
或者表述为 O=(1-P3)/∑Pn----------(这里n=4;5;……x)) \! W* U5 k/ h% J1 m( Y7 _
: {4 g1 K" V/ L: u( ]" V& I! K" E
在大小球盘为3球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:+ }' G/ c! J, G @5 R( b
K=0 X0=Bu*U
q) b7 A# r0 W" n/ G) WK=1 X1=Bu*U # ~( v: X; H! r3 w( D& ^0 G
K=2 X2=Bu*U
; S& A# ?# i3 v% OK=3 X3= Bu# |* [0 Y* W% Z" z
J=4;5;....x X4+=0
! L; [# H2 Y! ^( c" @+ T3 [
: ~+ O8 U5 e1 X. E: N/ B9 h投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu: z7 M4 K: H9 @/ ^1 ~% @$ _
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
& ^3 F0 x. G) `. ` ∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu =Bu
0 B3 K0 {+ X% `( v U*(P0+P1+P2)+P3=1
: Y; G9 `, w, N- v- j- w% f* U 在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3)/(P0+P1+P2)
2 H3 b* i# A( s6 L8 Y7 u% d
' Z8 A. O, f' ]6 S) b! q3:大小球盘为2.5/3球(G=2.5/3)/ B0 A& H! [8 ^* o0 r- z- J* _
) r0 g, L0 V. N. a+ M+ M" i( A" J; o. N2 x在大小球盘为2.5/3球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:
* {5 U/ [; j! d) P$ SK=0 D0=0
5 {0 V* g% m# q8 y/ Q+ s7 dK=1 D1=0
$ b: l+ P& k! aK=2 D2=0
. a* o& n5 C' K2 q% Z- d7 QK=3; D3= Bo/2+ O*Bo/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在2.5球盘赢盘)
' \. O" @/ k7 x7 v. oK=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O ) W% {* ]; b9 u. {; R
% t- b/ S& x9 H# V* q l投注大球的期望回报总数为:
5 l3 h" f/ U+ U% x, `: O1 M ∑D=P3* Bo/2 +P3* O*Bo/2+Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)
1 c4 ]. h. f7 r3 E! j$ t = P3* Bo/2 +P3* O* Bo/2+Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)2 c; D, C% d0 [5 I+ h
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
, u! N% d. F; `- ` ∑D=P3* Bo/2 +P3* O* Bo/2+Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo
$ r- y, c' v: v7 E5 D P3/2+ O* P3/2+O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1
$ h9 S8 f( c# H. T' f' I3 } O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3+ P3/2)=1- P3/2
$ I0 w# a; i. [: {! H( N# m. k 在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3/2)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3/2)
, m$ v. `0 q. \: g
5 T0 _) ~! x( R8 t+ o4 e在大小球盘为2.5/3球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:0 q7 \5 n a- y+ D& `! n
K=0 X0=Bu*U ; ~# x% d2 ?8 e. L( |3 e
K=1 X1=Bu*U 6 P' Q9 { k9 u
K=2 X2=Bu*U " N5 c# k/ C8 R/ o; k" s
K=3 X3= Bu/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在2.5球盘输盘)) E; v& f3 r' p1 Q+ [6 n
J=4;5;....x X4+=0
6 G: f8 t3 @' |, s4 ]0 z% K
) O, s ]7 L5 p0 J' r投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2, e6 j: ]' G8 e: f& \- W! n
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。- U. O: s: p1 D6 v5 K, S1 l
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2 =Bu
4 h2 U/ O4 V% q/ U" j U*(P0+P1+P2)+P3/2=11 }1 l' E2 l% j2 l' x- l; y
在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3/2)/(P0+P1+P2)
/ W% {6 h4 ?. ?0 ^' Q. ` }( t6 y# \% ^
4:大小球盘为3/3.5球(G=3/3.5)
' E3 D s' k0 D, N* C" q) n, Q1 M- Q! P
在大小球盘为3/3.5球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:
A% V; w* {) c" O9 a8 n* lK=0 D0=0
( g3 O, c' R `K=1 D1=0
2 g9 F1 o: D' ?% N- g- ] FK=2 D2=0
; M3 y% n% O, q( v. M9 `K=3; D3= Bo/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在3.5球盘输盘)9 }& k9 j0 u O$ G
K=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O
( U6 U5 m# L" q! S x& I7 n. [0 k2 R7 j6 Z- @2 P8 ~5 Q. V( v
投注大球的期望回报总数为:
. @9 F' R5 j, Y* h) { ∑D=P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)) u. h% U2 p- |3 Z- Z
= P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3): H- Q C' O8 h) w2 u R4 \" F8 ]) R
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。. a; g7 ^& e7 \* Y4 ~3 B0 U( s
∑D=P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo' f; s7 d( p6 {+ [/ l
P3/2+ O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=12 w$ h/ L3 {# n5 }0 g2 r
O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1- P3/2
. e/ j! _0 x# X& M2 M3 X2 Z6 s8 m 在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3/2)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
0 m# F- y& ~" Q$ o 或者表述为 O=(1-P3/2)/∑Pn----------(这里n=4;5;……x)
5 [( `" l n% H, T6 o
. r+ h1 k; P2 _6 t: k. }2 q0 y, R在大小球盘为3/3.5球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:9 H* Q0 x8 {/ S2 t
K=0 X0=Bu*U
3 {. M! f8 I! {K=1 X1=Bu*U + q4 D3 H( P- t; P
K=2 X2=Bu*U
, `$ s: {( n/ S' q4 YK=3 X3= Bu/2+U* Bu/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在3.5球盘赢盘)
( ]" n6 ~9 M8 c) {5 P6 s: G, U4 p$ t& h) HJ=4;5;....x X4+=04 M0 C6 W' D3 H$ G4 I
4 ]$ o& s- E3 ?1 Q, Q7 o$ v. I投注小球的期望回报总数为:
6 N. k$ Y1 M9 y& {+ |$ _) b ∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2+ P3*U* Bu/2
8 f! p3 b9 G, ^; M _在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。3 z$ Z e7 E2 V3 S5 `6 g
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2+ P3*U* Bu/2 =Bu% U% K& T0 C# w9 x
U*(P0+P1+P2+ P3/2)+P3/2=1
, M8 x7 V( n- A0 H" W! l) g 在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3/2)/(P0+P1+P2+P3/2)4 H9 F, I0 U4 F# a
( x/ y/ ^) @. @6 N7 m
3 c/ p$ H# {7 C
一场足球比赛就是以主,客进球数最终是多少来体现其结果的.
; I8 L) C) U$ N大部分博项的赔率都可以通过进球概率这个基本数据实现互相转换!
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% Z. `- }7 @& nP0 P1 P2 P3 P41可以由统计函数生成,也可以由开盘赔率计算得出,比如用波胆赔率计算。(这种方法计算出的Pn值有一定的偏差) |
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