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[虚拟币资讯]
冷风说币:反弹结束 行情再次陷入震荡 2022.06.02
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市场消息# ?2 e' o9 n e0 H" Z
从6月1日起,美联储开始启动其缩减资产负债表计划。在新冠疫情大流行期间,美联储的资产负债表已激增至近9万亿美元。 ) q# }7 k( M9 S+ Y! J8 J8 m
6月的第一个交易日,美联储正式启动十年来第二次缩表。
! o- W- V0 H+ N! s8 `+ M美联储的计划是:从6月1日开始以每月475亿美元的步伐缩表,将在三个月内逐步提高缩表上限至每月950亿美元,主要以国债为主。 6 y5 c1 b4 l8 ~2 M# H j3 h
所谓美联储缩表,缩的是“资产负债表”。在资产端对应的是国债等持有量下降,在负债端对应的是储备金和逆回购的减少。
3 L2 D# `# q% O大白话来说,所谓“缩表”,就是卖呗!变卖各种资产,通过减少各类资产的购入,从而达到稳定(减少)美联储现金流。 M8 S) E6 w' ]$ y1 I m
缩表是比加息还要剧烈的金融工具,与加息相比,缩表更具不确定性,缩表一旦开始,必将对全球经济产生蝴蝶效应,只不过效应大小有待进一步观察。
9 C, J2 c! x4 B8 L# @) w; b* B9 M) @ v数据显示从2020年开始,美国财政和货币政策齐齐“大水漫灌”,印了不少钱。美联储的资产负债表规模从2020年初的4.24万亿美元,猛增加到了现在的8.91万亿美元。 ' o, s3 ~& i6 ~6 `" ^8 ~# q" C, A
放水挺爽,可通胀也很闹心,美联储现在关心的,就是把前几年放出去的水收回来。通过3月份和5月份连着两次加息。但通胀率加息之前是8%,加息之后还是8%,温和的加息已经没效果了。
) Q8 v9 x: `$ v! t此次缩表可能持续3年,预计到2025年中的时候,美联储的资产负债表将从接近9万亿美元缩小到5.9万亿美元。 . ^4 a) l( d' o
缩表的“抽水机”一开,市场流动性减少,炒股的人也会变少,美股最近非常熊,以后还会更熊。加密货币更不用说了,池子里的水一少,它立马就跌给你看。 ' {% [2 k U5 r- L# B/ Q
总之,接下来的几个月,全球金融市场面临的冲击可能将十分剧烈。但究竟会变为什么样子?谁也不能预料。
+ e: c2 [" M- {/ X7 A) T5 y行情分析
; p" f3 {0 h: K, H1 _BTC短线支撑28500-29500美元,短线压力30000-30500美元。大饼跟随美股回踩,并没有在冷风说的30500-31000美元箱体上沿止跌,而是直接回到原来箱体之中,预计还会在28500-31000美元区间震荡。冷风在反弹过程中一再强调不要对反弹高度期望太高,32000-33000美元区间可以放空,目前来看这个略策是正确的。那么短线大饼会怎么走?又怎么操作?冷风提醒二点,一是大饼回踩还没有回稳之前,还是小仓位高空为主。二是当大饼回踩至29000美元左右,就不要再空了,而是要寻机做多为主。当然如果再次跌破28000-28500美元,大饼的走势则可能会再探新低,大家且行且珍惜。 & c: `, W* T1 L" x D9 E) a! }% t
/ G4 M. X. h1 C6 eETH短线支撑1750-1800美元,短线压力1900-1950美元。以太坊整体走势还是跟随大饼回调,跌破1900美元关键支撑,建议按照大饼节奏按照。主流币跟随大饼波动,按照大饼节奏操作。 ; m4 f7 `. \6 o4 A& v( H2 Q
3 [1 @& |8 u. F山寨币三个原则,大饼稳,板块热,龙头强。冷风认为山寨币炒作有二点,一是大饼要稳。二是要抓住主线。冷风一再强调,存量资金搏弈,局部式行情,而这局部就是山寨币。昨天冷风让大家放空为主,收益应该还是不错的。对于是做大饼,还是炒山寨?冷风还是偏向于山寨,只不过有一个前题,那就是大饼搭台山寨才能唱戏。 - Q$ } d, p- p6 w5 j. y/ u
来源:金色财经 |
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