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[虚拟币资讯]
冷风说币：反弹结束 行情再次陷入震荡 2022.06.02
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市场消息
6 e- ]% w. P0 {' v- A1 G1 [9 t, L从6月1日起，美联储开始启动其缩减资产负债表计划。在新冠疫情大流行期间，美联储的资产负债表已激增至近9万亿美元。 2 \: J$ i; f) \( S: w" W* Q
6月的第一个交易日，美联储正式启动十年来第二次缩表。 7 V. ^4 @% V) c" E
美联储的计划是：从6月1日开始以每月475亿美元的步伐缩表，将在三个月内逐步提高缩表上限至每月950亿美元，主要以国债为主。 9 K6 {" x1 _1 |5 i$ \+ j
所谓美联储缩表，缩的是“资产负债表”。在资产端对应的是国债等持有量下降，在负债端对应的是储备金和逆回购的减少。 . f4 t1 y$ O/ p$ M. L( Y) W
大白话来说，所谓“缩表”，就是卖呗！变卖各种资产，通过减少各类资产的购入，从而达到稳定（减少）美联储现金流。
) t u8 i1 w! d. j+ ^! e缩表是比加息还要剧烈的金融工具，与加息相比，缩表更具不确定性，缩表一旦开始，必将对全球经济产生蝴蝶效应，只不过效应大小有待进一步观察。
% g; e( M ~0 ~6 J% d' @数据显示从2020年开始，美国财政和货币政策齐齐“大水漫灌”，印了不少钱。美联储的资产负债表规模从2020年初的4.24万亿美元，猛增加到了现在的8.91万亿美元。 & _# ^' f* `0 y) B
放水挺爽，可通胀也很闹心，美联储现在关心的，就是把前几年放出去的水收回来。通过3月份和5月份连着两次加息。但通胀率加息之前是8%，加息之后还是8%，温和的加息已经没效果了。
1 ^/ |/ \! l) q此次缩表可能持续3年，预计到2025年中的时候，美联储的资产负债表将从接近9万亿美元缩小到5.9万亿美元。
7 f+ u! j5 D% X5 d$ e缩表的“抽水机”一开，市场流动性减少，炒股的人也会变少，美股最近非常熊，以后还会更熊。加密货币更不用说了，池子里的水一少，它立马就跌给你看。
4 K) _; _* @! @8 z7 Z5 e总之，接下来的几个月，全球金融市场面临的冲击可能将十分剧烈。但究竟会变为什么样子？谁也不能预料。
6 F5 D: S) W" w' _* a7 t7 |8 Z行情分析) e1 x. ^$ H1 X# Y8 ^& U* N: ^
BTC短线支撑28500-29500美元，短线压力30000-30500美元。大饼跟随美股回踩，并没有在冷风说的30500-31000美元箱体上沿止跌，而是直接回到原来箱体之中，预计还会在28500-31000美元区间震荡。冷风在反弹过程中一再强调不要对反弹高度期望太高，32000-33000美元区间可以放空，目前来看这个略策是正确的。那么短线大饼会怎么走？又怎么操作？冷风提醒二点，一是大饼回踩还没有回稳之前，还是小仓位高空为主。二是当大饼回踩至29000美元左右，就不要再空了，而是要寻机做多为主。当然如果再次跌破28000-28500美元，大饼的走势则可能会再探新低，大家且行且珍惜。
$ H- A j* I( X# g# [
* b: B: k- P9 Q( DETH短线支撑1750-1800美元，短线压力1900-1950美元。以太坊整体走势还是跟随大饼回调，跌破1900美元关键支撑，建议按照大饼节奏按照。主流币跟随大饼波动，按照大饼节奏操作。 6 r/ v' J7 }% a' S. S3 G u5 p
$ H. @8 _8 u8 e) v Z! Y. E山寨币三个原则，大饼稳，板块热，龙头强。冷风认为山寨币炒作有二点，一是大饼要稳。二是要抓住主线。冷风一再强调，存量资金搏弈，局部式行情，而这局部就是山寨币。昨天冷风让大家放空为主，收益应该还是不错的。对于是做大饼，还是炒山寨？冷风还是偏向于山寨，只不过有一个前题，那就是大饼搭台山寨才能唱戏。 # q- Q6 I+ E4 P1 F, T
来源：金色财经 |
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