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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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" k/ K' o) `/ }8 r$ r 比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。
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: F' A* s! T! _1 c' p 3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。8 ^ `1 c7 p1 c1 c, N; w" W( m
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比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续3 N7 f3 F5 U5 I! E+ E
+ z. W! S1 I5 `! V" g1 Y
Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。
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, {0 u! L; r: Q: J$ e' L( h: E 尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。
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+ ]1 e& V+ |+ P/ f! u4 H 市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。
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) a- p+ s3 C. k2 c1 s- L 针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，
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价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。3 I+ G! B. \5 Q$ O
( y8 H7 Y) f( g( ]( D3 |1 |: D “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间5 [) h) i- z/ C. \7 ~2 W' E
: L7 g$ P$ S5 ] X1 f框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”' k- C7 y( ^; D6 ]8 M
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2 P3 i! N; ^4 V' [7 L 知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。8 ]4 Q# E; w3 A7 ?- q% w/ d. s! [# Y
4 Z2 H1 I7 W! L3 H+ C& G “$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在: A& y+ J+ [- C0 H
8 w5 ?& p# f2 c& P; |积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”
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e" f* v' d$ _! { 早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。
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* u& I' x+ a' d. k1 B# z. i! F/ n3 f 与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。
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6 ~. o# y, ~% p- |1 n: h- L 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势+ J: C/ C/ W, a
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当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。! \/ t/ i4 c Q, c0 z# |2 [
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监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。
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" H4 t5 \6 J2 @+ B& z7 z* R 该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，" s) F5 _% h3 ~# u, ? `
' ?1 W( e* ^, Y市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”3 c [- @- u- ?7 g w
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