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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
! N/ `, H: F) b" h C- h# s7 X. \5 e! {$ a
. }% K+ K' L9 ~6 K' o3 o2 u- N" h西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率, i$ s! `( i H4 p
/ W' r9 a& ]. u以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
3 {6 U/ _% B+ g" z3 |9 ~& z: }9 y4 v3 X+ k
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
& }2 z2 A8 O% _+ j9 S9 o3 A C$ K' b7 V9 \4 F9 V
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
9 k' M0 f$ u, A# y0 t( l" E( V! n0 M4 W" J% A2 L) ]
& M p; h* J9 m% @- ^1 l以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?. _+ I/ X* U& f4 r2 z# @/ S" ^
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, I/ j' n# F, d% F" e# p f% m盈利可能性3 X0 P$ ~- Z# x I; l+ h
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。4 p# f; D$ [/ o |
8 C7 n& n. Z) p* z3 `% `$ i: a1 z增值* H* M) d4 b, ^$ _/ t% K. B( `
- n# \2 P0 N8 e. x& t; U8 d
许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
5 H9 L. L3 w. k% O: c
5 V6 ?& F: x( r# y. Q' j) Aa) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
4 J( P, J# h" P1 a' N! p( F0 F: L4 } w/ K
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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8 z/ L/ ~0 H- w# Z/ ?40%的机会你会收到150元的利润$ t7 W8 z. f3 g. R
60%的机会你会一无所有) g/ t0 `, l$ Y7 c. L) e) M6 h
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 + Z7 `# n5 o2 F( B+ B# S8 k3 C& Z
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。 `8 Z0 _+ w/ Q$ {
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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& Q: \' P ?, q1 Q, p9 l; R8 q6 \基于增值的投注, w7 P# u8 [, k) |
. S F6 T$ z1 `凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)' {) g( e5 P% n O. u
6 B# |6 O# z b! ?/ k# x: YA=博彩资金9 o% B6 G$ k' ~5 u u5 g" m9 K( C
P=获胜机会/ v. r: ?( e I( r8 K1 o9 ]$ @7 @
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。7 N0 A9 w6 _* f! l
' s( j0 O1 P3 U1 U) L好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。/ s- o" N. w6 }$ y n$ E
& \1 l! K: l6 R/ P. X
1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5): g( c8 z$ f) E2 F1 T
3 }5 z5 a$ {7 D4 b' i( EA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)3 J/ b; P' C, D1 H
$ ^& ~$ ]7 B1 M2 |4 }7 _& h8 [
A=0( [& c% C: S& u$ U9 k2 X5 [9 I
( S) N9 l. u3 G0 ], @6 `% e结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢+ p2 _1 ]3 W) @& Y5 ?/ ^2 Y- p
$ c% w K1 w8 A1 i* ?2 p" n/ V$ W2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)6 f6 j+ b' v7 ?$ k7 P/ g
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
& H: n' w+ y8 F& C9 \% B) D X. O1 q J# i
A=0.15 u: h: e# U' H, w& }% c* n: O
- z: J8 t9 K1 w2 ^结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去% J* i" W" n9 y. i# [9 d5 l
+ A B( G8 I1 _% q: w# ~
3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)4 j# L( S- _# G6 W6 p0 @4 X( k8 \/ o
! k |7 D/ W, J" [4 G" _A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)% d+ Q! [# ~ t) j1 b
" P( ]3 r* K w2 K* @5 h% r7 d. u
A= -0.2 $ Q( g7 l/ ^* n- l
% X( o% I S, v% ~! H2 p# _
结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好; `2 i# X' k2 L
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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