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小分3种情况:2 p0 b" Z( z( Y
4 B, X1 O E% s& O. F1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。6 @2 m2 l" S9 l, A# }
S% o- D' C' E2 n6 S2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。# J5 K; ~$ \( O2 F o
, O1 \4 g3 P( ]3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
8 S4 p$ R' |! u& @# u" O
* Z& M1 }% k5 o, t2张牌8或9点的情况有:0 r6 u1 u4 S( B' s
& N( H6 K' d3 X9 f
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10+ ?$ Y1 ?6 J, E% q6 ?4 G
1 K7 W# E& p6 E- i1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
/ Y- K. v! T$ e( D: s) J
" @ p- J G# H4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415
, t. @& ?2 T$ l( Z& a
6 X: l3 H+ ]' w# x% o8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
2 L% g) c3 ?0 S# q
+ z! r* {0 U0 o; f3 d. x' I L由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
/ i( A5 I. w: O* b- o: f& V& x: t
: Z% n) K) F6 i: x' ?3 w/ _- e通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
}' w5 z0 }) h- k- y: T$ b$ i9 t/ M6 t
那么我们可以得出- c# I- T! h/ J' o- @) T2 a N
( [( {- z& h, z( R+ A) c; v& U( K
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
. C; R9 j- @) M& q& d
: ?6 ?! {; }% f3 X6 n2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 9 D( y |8 ?2 A+ i" H! V1 B
$ \# f3 C; m7 u3 b8 P: S0 u8 }) c9 h3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
b @- C8 S$ r* ?/ t8 }- S: v8 b% F, o- l- i
所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
- w) R& e0 ~6 }( h( v% K; ]4 m+ Y3 g# `) E8 K T; p6 a
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677) ]2 r u, T* R+ ?0 x
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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