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小分3种情况:
- U3 @6 m8 T4 F: ^ \4 O
% s+ `. C' u+ Q8 p5 E2 n$ [1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。7 W; n- F) q' E% V: D5 ]1 N* G* d
% S0 L+ R! s m( S5 a- s' d) [! R
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。8 G: `4 o1 J8 Q0 ]+ {
* U _# a. X. B% W/ x: X3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。0 L( t9 S$ N- d: X
* S; g( G+ T) U" U7 J# Y2张牌8或9点的情况有:
% D1 g6 Z- k3 G, q4 I4 {
8 D1 F0 N* j O# s1 |1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
4 P, P2 z8 y& Q3 W- q$ F
) ~" {7 Y% y" ^& B5 {% H9 @1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
8 Z5 Y0 |: z1 H1 A3 n, e& I
0 y6 U9 ?7 g6 p+ @0 Q; }$ x4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/4156 M7 Q( F4 M2 k
9 l3 A$ k- l2 s6 u. W, ^# Q- j
8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/4156 b( H. @1 k$ M5 `' j9 F$ ^
6 o/ K* N8 S1 Y. A
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
6 y7 L {) j- @8 L- n+ w
) @5 h7 N! e2 C% m& `# s6 q. ^通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
- b0 b g; @& u) s$ W' k
; J/ `2 \5 {# r5 h7 g6 x那么我们可以得出- g6 x# {1 R' C+ K2 K7 ?
/ r$ Y% K9 B1 X9 b7 v1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662# v. E. m4 Q- q8 I- W
! ^+ R* Z' S' c0 y5 A% l( H* K
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171
M6 N/ G3 b, h& ] E. X; T- Q3 ~8 J$ n/ q" G
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
' v$ ]4 _- Y# _+ D
0 j1 ^" e' V$ z4 \% c. D* E所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323" g, i/ |( s1 `! h2 {+ |
; O/ u$ D& N: C |& Z0 H百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677% h9 a# b7 ]2 ~" Q' ~
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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