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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑
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其实原文标题不是这样的! B9 N N: }5 F# d+ d: P$ p; s+ }8 r
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这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
1 d H9 L1 d0 F, S他希望能和上帝来场赌局。
5 s- o( A( m6 m/ U- c. F0 \# Y$ _# S1 g; x
「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。7 G; _2 X3 A. O+ u! ~0 D- v
: ^3 A6 o8 n/ d+ k P9 t 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」" j$ s) {; M# D$ \
4 ]3 R) j& r( S: f/ s0 M/ J
「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」
% y9 K- V2 M9 p! ^3 f0 n O' J「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」/ Z7 p9 o( o' O h
7 V9 K" L+ d* D, f: b 上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。) d6 @9 K7 W" e# k. Y" F/ E/ N1 O9 |
- y8 q8 B! u B% q/ h6 L" g接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，- Z/ O0 q* M: K. G# G
因此铜板较容易出现正面。
9 S0 {6 D: D! D6 a! a9 K长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。
9 Z# R3 D" v. u7 |2 }) p& _# a |) P因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。: H4 ]/ [9 s# z5 F7 n* s
心想赢定了。
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* A% y) }* ?) z: P9 ]5 q没想到开始不到半刻钟，
- |& T. C1 h; p/ ]赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」3 p. ]7 C3 f. n% @6 n
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赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，; \. z* O6 h: M7 i y3 q
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。
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赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
( d# f5 \; y, s" I4 i0 A他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
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上帝回答道：$ j( m7 q& [/ O1 D& O
「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」
2 R4 B2 O: F! c y「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」2 O; ]( f1 n' z) ]! P( L# o7 G+ `
「而不是先发生在我身上。」
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赌徒恍然大悟，. X) k9 u* d F. G
原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，) Y. w! j1 V8 l; ?- i+ h1 D* B
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！
2 k& y& R. y* H- `0 J「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」
& p" b; Q0 e9 U8 ^1 J7 |5 ]: \( S上帝说完便不见踪影。
9 F. C8 B9 D& W3 E; H
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，
5 ~. X" }: J! f若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，
( U0 ^. a8 H- L1 e' E7 ]; C) O1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
4 A! _# ~9 y0 B0 z5 o+ C9 T对赌徒十分有利。
" \$ X( I: o& v9 z1 K, R# a# n - k$ l9 w, g' S
但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，
9 u. ^4 |/ t- J8 V" V0 ?在还没掷到1000次之前，
% ~' h4 w" a% R2 [1 `* G/ e仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
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& A3 A3 ? X. p6 l/ b 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。8 O5 |8 c U$ b' o# d2 r! \
$ T5 Y7 u3 t) C) L( U. V 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。( U( \$ O$ b' i9 w0 Y6 L
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市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，
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永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ * E# M+ z: E- F- G- Y5 P) z
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