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[虚拟币资讯]
冷风说币:反弹结束 行情再次陷入震荡 2022.06.02
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市场消息
7 ?& G- }7 l/ Z4 p0 G, L: H从6月1日起,美联储开始启动其缩减资产负债表计划。在新冠疫情大流行期间,美联储的资产负债表已激增至近9万亿美元。 ) E8 v* \# F& S6 I9 Y2 @7 n5 M" y- Z
6月的第一个交易日,美联储正式启动十年来第二次缩表。 , a6 G e& h9 S# c) D3 J
美联储的计划是:从6月1日开始以每月475亿美元的步伐缩表,将在三个月内逐步提高缩表上限至每月950亿美元,主要以国债为主。
9 ~( b4 H/ ~+ M- C9 ~9 a- a所谓美联储缩表,缩的是“资产负债表”。在资产端对应的是国债等持有量下降,在负债端对应的是储备金和逆回购的减少。 1 a& Q* P; @5 W; H7 ]( b: U8 A
大白话来说,所谓“缩表”,就是卖呗!变卖各种资产,通过减少各类资产的购入,从而达到稳定(减少)美联储现金流。 / y/ n& B: w7 C- v( C0 i' a* `/ _
缩表是比加息还要剧烈的金融工具,与加息相比,缩表更具不确定性,缩表一旦开始,必将对全球经济产生蝴蝶效应,只不过效应大小有待进一步观察。 2 c3 z$ [1 G6 L$ L! T6 q7 [' J1 \
数据显示从2020年开始,美国财政和货币政策齐齐“大水漫灌”,印了不少钱。美联储的资产负债表规模从2020年初的4.24万亿美元,猛增加到了现在的8.91万亿美元。 2 _. B. S; U$ y5 {: E; r
放水挺爽,可通胀也很闹心,美联储现在关心的,就是把前几年放出去的水收回来。通过3月份和5月份连着两次加息。但通胀率加息之前是8%,加息之后还是8%,温和的加息已经没效果了。 ' E. P/ O- | v
此次缩表可能持续3年,预计到2025年中的时候,美联储的资产负债表将从接近9万亿美元缩小到5.9万亿美元。
! f5 l1 H' _. ?缩表的“抽水机”一开,市场流动性减少,炒股的人也会变少,美股最近非常熊,以后还会更熊。加密货币更不用说了,池子里的水一少,它立马就跌给你看。
4 o6 v6 V& {4 \( s9 G( L9 A总之,接下来的几个月,全球金融市场面临的冲击可能将十分剧烈。但究竟会变为什么样子?谁也不能预料。 9 H, p1 }. o8 @: _. b
行情分析' i% ]/ i+ T1 ]
BTC短线支撑28500-29500美元,短线压力30000-30500美元。大饼跟随美股回踩,并没有在冷风说的30500-31000美元箱体上沿止跌,而是直接回到原来箱体之中,预计还会在28500-31000美元区间震荡。冷风在反弹过程中一再强调不要对反弹高度期望太高,32000-33000美元区间可以放空,目前来看这个略策是正确的。那么短线大饼会怎么走?又怎么操作?冷风提醒二点,一是大饼回踩还没有回稳之前,还是小仓位高空为主。二是当大饼回踩至29000美元左右,就不要再空了,而是要寻机做多为主。当然如果再次跌破28000-28500美元,大饼的走势则可能会再探新低,大家且行且珍惜。 ; t+ r5 A3 G% Q3 X: l7 ?0 v
. ~& e' A @$ _. SETH短线支撑1750-1800美元,短线压力1900-1950美元。以太坊整体走势还是跟随大饼回调,跌破1900美元关键支撑,建议按照大饼节奏按照。主流币跟随大饼波动,按照大饼节奏操作。 # r% K. y3 t& Y5 \' M' M8 T
7 M/ D- S: {" B5 w/ b B1 G( }山寨币三个原则,大饼稳,板块热,龙头强。冷风认为山寨币炒作有二点,一是大饼要稳。二是要抓住主线。冷风一再强调,存量资金搏弈,局部式行情,而这局部就是山寨币。昨天冷风让大家放空为主,收益应该还是不错的。对于是做大饼,还是炒山寨?冷风还是偏向于山寨,只不过有一个前题,那就是大饼搭台山寨才能唱戏。
8 u- O+ o/ a& r) j. g* i来源:金色财经 |
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