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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘4 ^3 m- O/ k7 h6 {$ \. C
0 s4 m# k; c/ X* ~% B+ _
平手中水,主队有利3 M8 X( G8 ~7 B% G- g; I
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
2 q5 m- T" _0 v. Z" S; a2 u 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
1 Z- C( Y6 |) A) G7 o 英超主队
m1 b! S+ w2 l/ ^- ~# r4 r, P 胜:13场 48%! w* |. D& [; Y
平:5场 17%
. d7 f5 A/ F) ~( s9 B9 P 负:9场 35%4 V7 m; d) w$ b: \4 o7 H7 F% ?
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
5 q6 U- W( h6 y. K u# b$ d9 A
6 m# W5 b. d. k ^ 一、初盘阶段
; |0 ~2 r1 v- u) \1 K8 C: g' J 具体到水位如下:7 H; a8 w& \+ ?5 @1 N4 E$ }3 c
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
a/ C* H- E3 O7 [5 U 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负7 X# i+ F1 @8 C/ j) v0 c( d
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负2 t/ N+ O! E* D& z2 B; l
! k: o1 w6 P% q5 v5 ^ 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。6 O+ R- N4 r$ [$ G @) S
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
/ {2 h0 z3 S# S' c8 y8 Y 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。6 E3 P2 D9 H3 o# e/ h9 C% v) F
5 _( C1 U' C# U7 L
二、临场阶段) @; J8 W4 \( r' U" c/ E
$ G2 L0 Y T& d0 P; ], d
具体到变盘和水位如下:$ Y- V# |' B4 t4 a- v) B* C
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负" k: d5 ~9 x+ h3 A! e6 h& T9 f- [
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负1 d9 w( l% {1 `& I4 I
# a7 L9 u, U5 S
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。1 F; i4 ?) l, O7 z
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
( K l) \) M# D) h+ {3 z
/ ~9 }0 a. M: ^7 u5 x) P 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿8 M( e" Z: N m8 y8 I5 g
初盘:0.82平手1.044 B/ G0 r0 u* k! w5 z% p
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85/ A- ~ n" i$ Q! f
% w( \# x: d! T, `' u% s: u
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
% A( Q5 C* z9 L7 ]0 W6 d. `8 `* i 初盘:0.76平手1.10
+ u2 h: b* ]9 p% Q" A, I3 S+ Z 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
7 c1 O0 l% c* }3 e" V- Q
D; y. F! n4 | 朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
, V8 D% M/ y8 Q- N6 u |, Q+ B 初盘:0.82平手1.04$ y7 I7 f5 @( _& y3 G6 @' Y4 n
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98) A1 x7 ]/ @: w. V. v
* u) [# a$ B9 P8 H3 {1 Y* R9 h
伯恩利2-1西汉姆4 w* S, Q$ q- b& t( y" Y: L
初盘:0.88平手0.98, J4 r3 m7 {2 O) w. E" K
终盘:1.12平/半0.74& o1 J1 N, v9 u+ Z$ u. r" V
我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
- b0 j$ A, E0 S" P, n @# T2 G 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
$ T7 R9 m( r- Z1 h" i% U 提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。/ k; a2 Z2 e0 @) E
a* T2 F$ C8 Y6 b( w 三、球队表现* b% t2 X* y7 V/ y5 V
4 j; u# s* o0 |2 @' g3 \, b8 B- x 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。) s# m+ p. i! x% j4 R
; [4 H \. K# S7 l0 {* d
四、投注要点3 R# c; A: f) x
要点1:平手中水、主多不败* g3 U9 @& k9 Q3 n2 E, \
要点2:平手降盘、走两头
( U k+ i1 S$ d 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
7 F9 ?4 s( a" l+ e1 r/ J 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
8 f K/ e5 v0 ?) r+ ? 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任: N1 |/ R; ?& [; ]1 i+ ~
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
+ R4 m1 S- F. v 要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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