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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘1 g# N2 M: l' ^ |0 g( F
# W" `9 f% ]3 N8 L4 t
平手中水,主队有利
' @" ?; x% L7 m t! c7 y 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。9 k6 o* r0 @2 g) Q( \1 U6 v X5 }
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:0 X1 B& G) `! j. k
英超主队
/ U7 A( V1 b# q6 E 胜:13场 48%
0 a( {! t9 x( B3 W v' R2 A: Y 平:5场 17%
! B; H- e3 b9 v/ H3 ` 负:9场 35%- B! g8 u5 \& S [8 ^- U5 I2 Q% G
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
: E: M0 Q' K7 j- g7 u * ^( C4 f7 |: W9 O, B
一、初盘阶段5 ?: Z f' S7 h' W+ g) j9 R. K
具体到水位如下:
. i; @* ~ Q5 t5 n- s: H* i 初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
& W% l; d" g, G7 x0 H2 s' B! n% U4 g 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负 I8 \& M3 R2 P, l4 I0 q" a6 @
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负6 K$ Z2 u# ~1 a4 ~/ o- w9 n
- A$ P3 |# V& F, u8 ?2 ~$ N 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
# Q/ |6 w- K4 o( E5 D 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
" {2 U3 ` n) f' u" r 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。& d S6 A0 I* V8 o% C3 a
' Z; v) T9 I8 ^ G
二、临场阶段4 B" x* C6 K- i
: ]: a; a" n5 t
具体到变盘和水位如下:
( w5 @- `3 A* p5 \) q3 g$ r$ z 临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
/ y' t# @7 R' y' E 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
: i b6 Y/ Z x+ O$ e
9 w4 m0 z* M0 @5 n* j 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
2 T6 O: H- c, w" b% u7 }& F" O 临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
: r- Q6 Z% }) \7 ]/ W
' ]- L6 D# i7 m( x, @ 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
! O6 O/ P1 q( c/ A 初盘:0.82平手1.041 s1 X H9 U; i" s5 \+ c
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.857 H2 W# _! g& _8 X
1 o, K' w! c( I/ G$ j 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆 v, O; T1 A3 I* c1 X
初盘:0.76平手1.10
) {% {- ?1 y6 R( h6 {- Q) n" ^ 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
1 j3 M6 G2 g. |& A
; Q2 @& _; l" w+ T( K; i 朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技( z4 R) U0 P' t( P
初盘:0.82平手1.04
5 J6 A3 E6 s4 U' m 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98+ W" s$ y" F3 v# d0 u! B
}1 M% f) z% q( R
伯恩利2-1西汉姆
% \* N& Q7 J# x6 T' t% w 初盘:0.88平手0.98
7 J) O$ z. F# j5 U9 ?3 \ 终盘:1.12平/半0.74
6 C1 |; W g/ G$ o. O 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
7 |! l) W! S: j1 v+ }* S 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。+ ~1 Q& S0 P( Y" B1 \% S2 E
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
2 e$ U f1 L+ _
3 x6 \$ c1 w. A/ B" [) q 三、球队表现- o4 n- _# f# w, U
! I& R! _: a- v% t 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。8 h( Z" M1 x/ I; ?$ ^" K! P
2 e$ ?. c! A" r. q2 c c 四、投注要点
, N* N6 j: c, X; E4 p 要点1:平手中水、主多不败5 j' J6 p/ E/ o/ _5 z$ x! o' D( ^) o, Q
要点2:平手降盘、走两头
* D. V7 X7 z6 q 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败0 u% W, F- W' u6 I
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大0 N1 f1 L8 W, T
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任' ^( n+ V+ M8 _/ A
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大' |( n! J+ g+ g( e1 b' ?
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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