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博彩就是博人性,其根原就在基本面。基本面是指每一场对赛两队球队所包含的一切综合实力的展现。分析基本面估算出该场球的实际综合实力与心理实力的差值.而这个实力也就是通常我们所指的实盘。结合庄家为该场球所开出的盘口作较对(初盘分析)再结合中期调整,(中盘分析)最后,临场分析。初盘与即时盘的结合体,就是解开一场球盘的关键所在。
3 e9 a8 i4 q: v7 ~2 j) |* _* H# h8 i! V2 u, t# F& U2 N" o
“盘无常盘,水无常形。”0 r$ Q0 c, T2 P; D" ]8 N/ q( u
5 |0 Y/ m S) L& ]& Z) Y$ m$ b! J2 p
“博者无他,争先术耳,故专者能之。”
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亚盘和欧赔结合分析法五步曲:( g$ S, H- n5 L7 s
4 _/ \ D/ |9 F2 O6 k$ ^6 v g5 y1、赛事分析(赛事基本面分析,强调寻找“造热噱头”)
% [+ g; i2 q2 Y& l5 q, m y7 p/ D; V
重点推荐关注领域亚盘让球0.5 0.75 1,欧赔1.45~1.99区 一三三(冷0) 一三四(冷0)一三五(冷1)一三六(冷1)一四六(冷1)等赔率组合区。
* @) H/ A; {5 N# ^9 z$ j+ J4 @2 v6 W4 x4 x5 t
由于亚盘半球盘,半一盘,一球盘是风险区(赢球还可能输盘),在这个区间,亚盘更具有指导意义,而赔率只作为辅助研究;
* z; a) E! \. s& D8 w* n0 V6 G4 }, a8 P5 b. i* i D* G; R
2、主流博彩公司初盘分析。9 f- ?; g. v3 o
9 u5 G2 X' O' a" c3 b; K重点研究盈禾(和SB相同),澳门、日博、立博、威廉,包括亚盘和赔率对比研究(欧亚转换)。英国赛事加上CORAL,德国赛事加上ODDSET,意大利赛事加上SNAI,西班牙赛事加上BWIN,亚洲赛事加上香港马会HKJC Football(天朝香港)
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3、主流博彩公司临场分析(赛前一个小时或半小时前)。
( [# N0 g+ M+ H8 |0 }# {1 Z& B7 f! f' K! [$ `/ E; V
各家博彩公司意见是否统一,同家博彩公司欧亚转换是否统一,寻找差异。3 f" Q- X B, m' p, r( z* P9 B
% C0 `0 K; X2 E L7 L1 n: p2 T4、结合基本面综合分析,得出方向。& Q) [; Z9 \; a, W0 A% U
O% y. C+ u4 u1 {2 x: Y+ O* GA盘口开大,不变盘,下盘大热,庄家看好上盘,诱下盘。 B盘口开大,临场降盘,下盘大热,庄家看好上盘,诱下盘。 C盘口开大,早中期降盘,调整盘口后,盘口合适(转盘口合适)。 D盘口开大,不变盘,降水至低水,上盘大热,市场预期看好上盘,庄家诱上盘。 E盘口开大,临场升盘,上盘大热,市场预期看好上盘,庄家诱上盘。 F盘口开大,早中期升盘,上盘大热,市场预期看好上盘,庄家诱上盘。 G盘口开小,不变盘,上盘大热。 H盘口开小,早中期升盘,调整盘口后,盘口合适(转盘口合适)。 I盘口开小,不变盘。 G盘口开小,临场升盘。 K盘口合适,不变盘,哪方受热哪方有难。 L盘口合适,临场降盘,减小上盘打出赔付,赢球赢盘。 M盘口合适,升盘热上盘。 N盘口合适,早期降盘,调整后,初盘开大(转盘口开大)。 O盘口合适,早期升盘,调整后,初盘开小(转盘口开小)6 v% q- L* H/ D0 `: A2 _7 {4 M
# Z- p3 u. h' k& o
5、时机的选择
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2 D9 Z2 p; J6 E5 ^( \$ ^' s盘口开大【如赔率支持半球盘,亚盘却开出半一盘】(如半一中高水波动盘),临场降半球低水盘(赛前半小时内,越临近,上盘进球越快),果断界入上盘;[庄家心态:降低上盘打出赔付]: ?4 y2 e- `1 o/ i5 M8 A
8 h |4 g6 O2 ` j. y初盘中规中矩(半球盘或半一盘),要出上盘,升要早升,赛前才升,那是热升盘,往往是诱上盘;【庄家心态:早升是庄家对自己盘口的正常调整,晚升往往是在诱盘】
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盘口开大(如半一中高水波动盘),临场维持中高水,上盘大胜可期;【庄家心态:有某个原因(这个很重要,如杯赛首回合强队主场被逼平;下盘球队近期状态大勇;下盘球队排名更靠前等等)不支持主队,庄家也顺应民心,实则是看好之举】8 C' Q5 o' E* `' U
3 j5 w/ |( e' W B4 d* V# t N盘口开大,早降盘,只要临场上盘不热,庄家看好上盘,强队赢球反弹。6 v- r* f/ U# F( O
5 I, m3 o" @4 ?" s* |! b
下盘一定在赛前下注(下一球下盘,比下半一下盘更明智),走地盘只关注上盘机会(重点在于把握时机,滚球盘的升盘是带有很强信号的(红卡因素除外)。);
# {8 J: i# p/ m- C; a8 ?! X
+ d: S- n# p# O% a- b* \9 y& q高开低走,易出冷平,低开高走易出冷零;
- L8 _5 D) s( B- S: v9 i6 _( o& x/ Z. I
滚球,重点关注SB和盈禾,并结合澳门;滚球适宜在开赛60分钟之前界入,75 85分钟之后,尽量少赶;
# k0 R7 k9 t0 q6 X/ ^ o4 n: H# q+ {% W
滚球中,SB和盈禾通常采用高水赶盘,大多数公司均半球满水盘,它却敢于半一134超高水,甚至更高;半一坚挺时间越久,对主队越有利,如坚挺过了中场休息,并且下半场开球还敢半一盘,上盘基本有球;半一坚挺30分钟以上,主队胜面较大,特别是澳门也同时坚挺,胜算更大;$ x4 z* m/ z3 m) P( `
( O7 t, \* O* c6 B0 SSB和盈禾有时采用低水阻盘,大多数公司均半球中低水,SB和盈禾开出平半超低水,往往上盘大比分胜出 |
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