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博彩就是博人性,其根原就在基本面。基本面是指每一场对赛两队球队所包含的一切综合实力的展现。分析基本面估算出该场球的实际综合实力与心理实力的差值.而这个实力也就是通常我们所指的实盘。结合庄家为该场球所开出的盘口作较对(初盘分析)再结合中期调整,(中盘分析)最后,临场分析。初盘与即时盘的结合体,就是解开一场球盘的关键所在。
& J9 C+ u: }' E6 e! o7 k ]( t- `0 l" b+ K/ E x
“盘无常盘,水无常形。”' q: X" ]( V; A. { K
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“博者无他,争先术耳,故专者能之。”7 c6 `/ u. B ^. h- X* {: w1 q v5 X
! E8 Q1 ~) L1 `" e* w& b* R% b. y亚盘和欧赔结合分析法五步曲:
: k0 e7 J% t2 H. T2 u7 I- F/ x8 b( E
1、赛事分析(赛事基本面分析,强调寻找“造热噱头”)9 k6 B( }6 z9 B. _3 b2 N
6 B5 W6 c5 w- e, T
重点推荐关注领域亚盘让球0.5 0.75 1,欧赔1.45~1.99区 一三三(冷0) 一三四(冷0)一三五(冷1)一三六(冷1)一四六(冷1)等赔率组合区。) f$ M0 A/ s/ I- F
( ^; l9 A( }& V- s, I3 k( K6 D由于亚盘半球盘,半一盘,一球盘是风险区(赢球还可能输盘),在这个区间,亚盘更具有指导意义,而赔率只作为辅助研究;
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! p6 g' U9 d) N5 A) i2、主流博彩公司初盘分析。* A% {1 Z9 z# P
3 N. {/ ^& u: R7 f重点研究盈禾(和SB相同),澳门、日博、立博、威廉,包括亚盘和赔率对比研究(欧亚转换)。英国赛事加上CORAL,德国赛事加上ODDSET,意大利赛事加上SNAI,西班牙赛事加上BWIN,亚洲赛事加上香港马会HKJC Football(天朝香港)
" j J7 t: x& j. b4 r
: B& l* w4 ?( n% l3、主流博彩公司临场分析(赛前一个小时或半小时前)。7 \) E5 U, r# e: Z3 ]
. B( t$ X# c" S各家博彩公司意见是否统一,同家博彩公司欧亚转换是否统一,寻找差异。, }! A. O& [: J
' Y, c) V8 R! i. `0 d9 j6 X! i4、结合基本面综合分析,得出方向。
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6 T3 s4 S" y/ y# @+ j* @9 m5 DA盘口开大,不变盘,下盘大热,庄家看好上盘,诱下盘。 B盘口开大,临场降盘,下盘大热,庄家看好上盘,诱下盘。 C盘口开大,早中期降盘,调整盘口后,盘口合适(转盘口合适)。 D盘口开大,不变盘,降水至低水,上盘大热,市场预期看好上盘,庄家诱上盘。 E盘口开大,临场升盘,上盘大热,市场预期看好上盘,庄家诱上盘。 F盘口开大,早中期升盘,上盘大热,市场预期看好上盘,庄家诱上盘。 G盘口开小,不变盘,上盘大热。 H盘口开小,早中期升盘,调整盘口后,盘口合适(转盘口合适)。 I盘口开小,不变盘。 G盘口开小,临场升盘。 K盘口合适,不变盘,哪方受热哪方有难。 L盘口合适,临场降盘,减小上盘打出赔付,赢球赢盘。 M盘口合适,升盘热上盘。 N盘口合适,早期降盘,调整后,初盘开大(转盘口开大)。 O盘口合适,早期升盘,调整后,初盘开小(转盘口开小)7 A) b4 s; C- `! [, @
5 _- H$ m! J' N1 u% Q
5、时机的选择
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4 g5 X( m& ]; e盘口开大【如赔率支持半球盘,亚盘却开出半一盘】(如半一中高水波动盘),临场降半球低水盘(赛前半小时内,越临近,上盘进球越快),果断界入上盘;[庄家心态:降低上盘打出赔付]
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初盘中规中矩(半球盘或半一盘),要出上盘,升要早升,赛前才升,那是热升盘,往往是诱上盘;【庄家心态:早升是庄家对自己盘口的正常调整,晚升往往是在诱盘】
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( C. Q" l/ v& e( y- z. l盘口开大(如半一中高水波动盘),临场维持中高水,上盘大胜可期;【庄家心态:有某个原因(这个很重要,如杯赛首回合强队主场被逼平;下盘球队近期状态大勇;下盘球队排名更靠前等等)不支持主队,庄家也顺应民心,实则是看好之举】7 G! \) v5 K* U$ H% ~( r: C
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盘口开大,早降盘,只要临场上盘不热,庄家看好上盘,强队赢球反弹。: i ~% }( W) v" T; ]( `8 M8 f
# J; @7 o! N$ f下盘一定在赛前下注(下一球下盘,比下半一下盘更明智),走地盘只关注上盘机会(重点在于把握时机,滚球盘的升盘是带有很强信号的(红卡因素除外)。);
4 y J& n, U' k1 m$ w8 A! P+ Z7 g& n- {0 M& U
高开低走,易出冷平,低开高走易出冷零;; ?, z0 p; ?6 B$ ~, U* e! V6 T
& Z" J9 w# V9 h/ k P5 ^2 Z5 a, M7 k6 J滚球,重点关注SB和盈禾,并结合澳门;滚球适宜在开赛60分钟之前界入,75 85分钟之后,尽量少赶;
3 J& G5 D: m2 U( C$ u" s0 r, b P9 z
滚球中,SB和盈禾通常采用高水赶盘,大多数公司均半球满水盘,它却敢于半一134超高水,甚至更高;半一坚挺时间越久,对主队越有利,如坚挺过了中场休息,并且下半场开球还敢半一盘,上盘基本有球;半一坚挺30分钟以上,主队胜面较大,特别是澳门也同时坚挺,胜算更大;- U% M" W0 l8 ?
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SB和盈禾有时采用低水阻盘,大多数公司均半球中低水,SB和盈禾开出平半超低水,往往上盘大比分胜出 |
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