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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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$ ~- {- n4 ^" L0 f; A& Z 比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。
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3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。6 Q* D0 W! l; P5 `3 T" o
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比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续2 Q6 F7 z) \& ^. A- R+ g
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。6 [) \* g4 f3 M S7 h+ P( t1 {2 G
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尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。
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市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。+ I( e& m. ~" f. ]5 u6 c( q8 i
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1 l9 i4 O( p# X! f/ U 针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。( r. T- j5 L5 a4 d) o0 Z. |
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，
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价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。, z5 L3 W7 u0 S
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“从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”7 o( J4 L9 [: p0 B3 i! s7 Q8 G
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: f# v* \) N2 v, G6 v 知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。& p* W6 d6 `2 p* d: z% w
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“$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在2 G& Z: _+ o. h2 @
; h; O" O2 y0 V积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”/ ]! A3 f! |6 F5 G1 |- o8 @( @ Z
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# E8 H, ?# ^5 i8 o1 T) o1 d 早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。
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- z- `% d$ j! t( v 与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。) s( M/ m) {, q, }- [' Y6 y: t
. f& n, d' b' r: d3 z2 u 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势
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1 R3 O& W% o7 ]3 x; e6 _ \% D 当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。
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- B9 A1 o' F3 A* }- g" \ 监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。: C. y4 f% f; v( q* V$ G3 n: U
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9 c3 }" Q5 d+ `6 b |9 ~ 该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，* c2 r$ b# R' g7 y9 t+ S9 l
7 [. i G5 N7 e$ g市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”; n: W$ j$ {: D9 p4 e
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