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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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) d9 h7 m! C+ `西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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+ W0 Q& t3 T& E$ ]以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?6 C: q1 V) h$ c' s

) I2 H, \( @- W8 W, c答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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4 Z, J; A- g" V( T% ?$ l以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。6 d8 Y# ?$ ~; T2 A2 }' M# ^' Q

! Q  ?  {) N! T7 i2 j* E3 l$ f增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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, I# c- B( K( V- o9 }) p7 i$ D你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?$ ]  c0 i% w$ K1 l( z
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a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 + Z0 b3 B, h0 \4 G

6 L$ s1 C) w& j% K" e2 N正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么  Y; W8 b4 V8 `1 Q

$ Y- K* b( B/ \* @+ |2 v40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
' B9 i' x0 U' [+ o4 H60%的机会你会一无所有( W# v2 h$ `9 N/ G0 o1 j% B6 d
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 , k5 {& C3 E1 i, y% n! H7 i0 r
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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8 N8 `3 A; {1 p8 m基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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, j1 {. S  j( Z9 W' {' b" N# |: q9 j2 YA=博彩资金
* p0 m- s  m6 H9 S9 f* m. v6 Z5 pP=获胜机会- f" C* ]! L( z; ~
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)3 C6 b$ H: F% j

! r$ ]- [4 g5 J: K首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。# r& D. S: H, z2 L

0 ~" x2 z) A- q好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)6 [* L  t2 ~9 @; b! B9 M
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0
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% P3 i$ L* l2 Y结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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$ E% J/ \4 t8 M; N1 T$ ^1 Z$ W% s2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)+ J2 a9 i$ u1 n2 m

) v& J, b" l9 }2 K- {- Q  \& G) K; wA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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A=0.12 o7 x( c0 t8 v/ ]
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)  u8 I6 ^& g+ Z8 L: [
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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A= -0.2 2 i, ?; r" y+ t% m) J
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好" S0 \4 f' c# T7 _
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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