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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

( ?/ Z4 Q. }6 W4 y3 S. V) v( g
賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類$ v  V; {. U! R  L6 k+ F% f
10A23456789
6 o# Y3 o% Q* \9 H-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.159
$ S0 {/ F: S  E-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.146
& S& G" i0 ]3 p7 E# U-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.133
# Y+ @. o; A( S6 Y1 [" b: L$ H-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120
  D- {9 n  l5 J( U-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.108
7 E+ B- _& M$ \) g' e' }4 a-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096
- k6 P+ e: E8 B4 E0 Z-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085+ O$ R/ `0 e, K' m
-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074; k* t6 P: F: L% @
0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.0643 |" @) t4 o9 g9 L6 p/ B' t
1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054
$ P& Q" K* `$ |# q  _- Q; p2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045$ N, K" {% ?9 \7 p6 B  c
3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.036
  Z( ?' n( D* i. A' d4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.0288 u* W1 o2 d! {
5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.0201 Z+ j; }& J- \; Q. X7 _
6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013
9 ^' t7 U9 R$ X1 G4 T7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007, w) v/ K) Y+ q
8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.0011 I: y1 a. y: u
9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.9965 y8 i4 B" K6 R1 ^$ e0 e: s" Q
10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.992
0 Q- A% S8 [3 ]9 v+ U11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988
3 T. J& T8 W4 m2 T# \# l( E12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.985
8 W6 r& l1 K$ `7 n7 ]& [13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.982
% y# u. a% q: O- t14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.980
, s3 m! T: p2 c% c' v1 R15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.979+ M1 F3 W3 C! g! w  _9 P# H) e2 v7 O$ \
16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.979
  Y$ A6 L+ G' P( @8 k2 G* n, z17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.979* }& F& o& d* N; E* |, |
18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.9791 X: B. _7 N$ c" b
19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981
. i+ r+ O6 y1 j: F; W20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.983# N( x0 E4 G: A3 R- e
21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.986/ Y" y& n$ R, |, T6 K! F
22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989
! A9 F  Z. G0 x4 @; H0 \23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993. e+ P9 F- g, `: R1 _& ^. B
24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.9977 ~4 F8 n/ U# I: h9 R
25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002
' W  T' m1 N0 `, t$ w

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。


& G1 P" o) o1 p1 [5 m$ ~4 ~表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
& K1 w( v) O+ e! E9 {& l$ j+ [10A23456789
5 i0 D; p) r1 `8 j1 v4 l. A: T-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.0957 u( ?# W! W: C; o$ u9 E- q( ?' j% C! d
-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.082
) ~- @6 ^/ g' A4 J1 {-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.069
: [% V% w9 Z( f! J-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.0563 e3 U# w- o9 f; n* A  O. [
-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.044
# h& S' `- C! y/ ?6 `% g-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.0329 j0 \* E& k# i9 n/ F* s$ Q: h
-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021
, V0 h* b& L6 p- w4 w: S7 V& {-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.010" b1 {3 v8 C0 j5 p$ R4 y
00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
3 h- s9 C) @9 }" B8 g1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010! P! B) r; t* O/ i
2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.019
7 G! @, U. H: Z4 S$ M2 {& N3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.028
7 j; M" }7 C+ B4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036
' \1 Y! A* r& R& F5 N/ P  `: T5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044
( J# F& w" d/ N1 R4 q0 l/ `6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.051
- L, z; n8 E. e2 y1 B7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.057) f; z; y: d/ a& @8 _; P: R. |% s4 ]
8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.0632 @0 K- p  q- a; P
9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.068% K8 r3 G* q! ~( f* f- Z
10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072! f5 e3 B+ g. x
11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076
7 u8 |8 q; D! K5 e- M0 z% ]: c12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.0798 F& l: T( P* G  P6 }
13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082
+ Z" [+ z: K: I( X% y8 P+ S& L+ ?14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084
. N( K* j! s: e0 y9 q2 a15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.085) ]8 P8 ~0 N& @3 Y8 i# N
16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085
. k$ L6 |7 {1 c! }0 F: r17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085
& x, m/ |7 W. U2 ]  t0 u% p9 }18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085
8 e- R* o! m- L, j' ^1 G0 @19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083
- u% e  X4 J; y  F. z( o2 P3 c20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081
" d# m8 ~( H; W$ D# Z21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.078; D. s" i% {$ i8 H" a2 c% h
22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.075/ |) z! ~  @' ]. W
23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.071
1 ^0 f. {* ?( h! e" l2 s24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067- |% h: B; [% P" ~  J( Q) u# Q
25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.0622 o/ S8 E$ V- o4 T- g1 R

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。


: l; c0 M* J& x9 P+ M! _押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
( b' I5 Q* k9 c8 f10A234567897 U- w) B  k- m) H8 |! ^1 z8 @
-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122/ C% j/ Z% K1 E1 _
-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.1377 C2 R0 i8 N  F$ M, n
-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152( J, e5 k, O7 P6 V- s
-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.166
6 V3 `  x/ m: B) X1 c7 a/ L. H, S2 }-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180
0 F  r0 M0 q5 w1 h-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.1939 Y! h% E$ B3 N) `& S3 y
-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.205
- q1 I2 l3 X) M) C; `-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.217
! j& y5 v' E" h; t+ _0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228
1 u0 e9 U* \1 }# j1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239) ]# U! G' b' Z% C8 n# m& r
2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.249
  p' P/ o; O5 x. i2 d2 f& N' r3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.258
5 H( @; G% r+ t' i- {) b' O4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266
4 p5 B' \; h* B6 W- H5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.274' B( I: {! \, D1 }0 `, }! t5 w
6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281
5 E7 N( W) b$ d! Q  }, v9 N7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287
+ d% ?/ m5 i* W7 ~5 x+ N. L2 v0 U# f8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.2932 a, @) s6 E" L" V. N, ?/ f% ]
9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298# z) `4 _/ c- j4 t5 i3 i6 g
10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.302
7 Q( X' _. v: a( ]. k$ C11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.3062 d% f4 Z  r7 l7 P- |
12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308
. |# Y7 ?- y" g7 K5 y" k0 m7 S. b13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.310, U, ?- t9 L- `& S- x. j' m  `
14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311
( Z2 i# O$ \% F, Q/ M" C: e# i2 N15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.311
7 h( G6 B8 l  w8 v1 @% ^16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311
$ G1 Y. q* O2 D2 n: ]17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.3109 M) ^$ s2 m. B/ s7 ^; e- F
18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308
9 t+ z; D3 x! _  U0 u, P19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.305( m& _( U3 N# F" R; j; E3 V* F9 q
20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301, H) ?" \% X3 S, U
21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297
2 C* C+ `7 ^1 S" D7 ?7 x/ A22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292
( X1 H+ J/ l# V0 t: W8 r23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.2868 l$ C1 [$ e: u5 ?% I/ g
24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.279; w' J& B* U5 I6 g
25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.272
  u: P. ~4 {) F" H5 e) l

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
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7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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