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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>


7 S, s" ], U/ c% K3 n5 q6 j) ^賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類" D  m: R5 n) C4 a. c: y
10A23456789
/ X# e$ C  D, l7 W! o. D-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.159" E) p. `3 r& `  G
-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.146
4 v6 |8 K& C: A; z4 _" O1 p& s-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.133, v7 a6 W" }9 z$ p
-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120
  c9 X) D" I8 _7 v( h( c-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.108
, u. B& i% d2 _5 U* |/ N* r-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096
- t3 _8 G$ U: j) [) d-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085, Z# j" f  K: Z& Q0 ~+ n
-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074
; O9 a7 Z& d3 l- d6 v' J  B0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064
% y+ M0 w5 b( s4 Y1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054
: q) g$ c) z+ S6 {: {# o5 e, L+ h! S2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045; o1 `/ c! @7 x
3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.0368 k+ o0 v) `2 @
4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028
6 V/ s. T) Z/ x* h* y8 I0 T5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.020
* W/ R1 ]& \' w3 L6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013
/ _* o3 S" Y  ?% O7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007
6 _' y( a) k, O- j8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001
& a. D1 e& ~2 E& |4 `; a, r9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.996
/ ]; R( F+ T0 d* v2 Q6 u9 h10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.992) H3 Z9 }; ]2 {7 d/ G. N$ ?2 y8 S
11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988* F7 G6 @9 c- \0 G- e
12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.985
" G, e: @0 U( Q$ i' l5 J: G5 y7 B13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.982
* P5 a; T2 }: ]14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.9800 K' j4 w4 \% n2 p8 f; m% X
15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.979
. r. M8 x( X  V7 Z9 u8 j6 f- G16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.9792 S# }$ g& ^: @- r, |$ _
17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.9792 O$ _# X: P5 a9 d
18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.9795 C  ~) l, Y0 [- \# w9 W
19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981
: M/ A7 b* t0 d% h' z. A# h20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.9834 n; E- k) x  o- \" N
21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.986
: D& v+ K* ?5 |" G& D7 c! j. J22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.9899 p( Z, }/ i  }! _- C6 m
23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.9935 Z( o7 y# ]' f& K/ v$ @: x2 u
24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.997) z& m% w$ `' |" p/ K7 v
25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.0020 e4 l) F5 @# u

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。

, W, i- m  y6 h9 h, X
表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
4 [( l" N+ {9 y2 a* ?, @* O10A23456789$ \% ~! R$ m& t3 m$ ?, Q) N3 m% k
-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.095
' {1 ]! j) P& o) I) p-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.082  X: \. i2 _& |1 i5 B
-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.069$ H7 C3 N7 l5 F. I4 y% J3 G
-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056
$ q/ c2 q2 w# x8 p-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.044
4 C# S( S+ O! B1 @+ }9 a/ B-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.032
" E7 @4 `7 {( M/ @-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021# U, V- x6 S+ V5 b6 P
-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.010
( N/ P4 T( e7 {+ E* j00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
- u' e4 F) w  Q$ a4 a7 {& i3 h1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010
* f6 f1 M/ L/ L2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.0196 a; ?0 P6 k2 A3 L1 \+ k  J# V
3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.028
* j* a8 X) P" T& J3 G4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036! _7 K3 E. \$ h) C4 |
5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044( I4 {9 D) ]+ V$ e
6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.051
; d0 \# ^, c$ F: V0 V% R7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.057
- W: {+ U. j+ L2 L) s& z8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063
5 w& \) P7 P7 M( Y* `9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.0680 o" M3 k: Q/ Z, U: }) ^
10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072
( c& R8 R0 n  U. B8 X9 |8 l11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076$ @. P# _) T7 h6 l! ?3 B
12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.079$ E9 N+ q2 e! s' P7 ]) U
13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082
+ M3 ^2 T1 F8 z" p9 y# U% g0 @14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.0842 R9 u( u2 X  p' {6 p( S. o
15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.085
, P" N) Z6 c: J+ i/ f5 m2 q16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.0855 l9 F; W0 t* d  m) v5 u
17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085
9 _0 ?, g/ _- L8 @" [  [; i: j18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.0855 S3 @6 N3 K- f# ^6 \
19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.0836 _3 t( p/ g+ P) J% |. @- ^0 r
20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081& {5 T- ]. c6 `. G* [
21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.0780 X% s) W5 D/ Y2 w, Y. a
22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.075
/ j9 K6 W3 _8 `, V1 x23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.071$ K1 J' i" }' ]1 w, L) R6 |
24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067" M' P/ K: F! V& ?) X& u' z8 E
25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.062
1 h2 q/ \6 A+ V2 g$ v( x

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。


" l. `3 B4 w7 S3 l4 \: t4 }' D押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類( l( X3 w/ b- V1 d6 U$ O
10A23456789
. q# \8 c- E$ s: g* F7 S/ |1 G-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.1220 D- W& v% W) L! D/ c  Y
-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137
% E; H! y9 F" W6 W; a5 x-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152
; Y# S) b9 d3 K) F-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.166
! I; ]  \5 P5 o: q: i1 b-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180
* _$ V* a: ?" U$ ~8 A$ D-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.1938 n0 C5 O' M5 n. P0 X8 [& ~
-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.205
6 k  [: R$ _: y$ V-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.2175 m. ]: M# Z* d# N, f
0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.2285 l9 ~) o* C! v0 v( G1 s
1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239: m2 `( \2 @8 B7 I% b! o% M
2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.249" {3 P% D) \: h. `& w" g5 `9 A
3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.2589 k0 y3 C* X  _$ N) ^. ?
4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266! E  d8 {. }1 V6 X1 T; _8 R
5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.2743 n( I& N  S9 ]% E; R, |
6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281
: v# r# W" ?+ O" V+ q1 d7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287
. M0 L; x0 c/ a/ e/ }) }8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.293
7 A! j) h/ u; P, o. z+ X9 W9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298* ~  D2 ]9 C& \7 k+ s% D5 R8 o
10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.302
& G5 V. O9 |6 y/ [! K11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.3061 R5 t0 w% f6 o. [" Y8 _
12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308
4 D; |2 o# E! @' E13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.310% d4 F$ X* J8 S6 A
14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311+ y4 }0 A- o2 ?" ~- P
15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.311/ b, |6 G' L1 z/ v3 i; C
16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311
7 |5 m5 m3 A3 R1 O" v7 w+ b17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.3100 s  {5 ?% ?% w% W: A! m
18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.3084 w" h# j& `9 `5 \
19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.305
4 ?$ R. ]2 n+ s0 y20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301
5 R, Q, N) [6 m/ h21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297" t* s' N; h0 x6 r, k
22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292: Y. f: Q3 e, b/ B$ x! K
23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286# R0 d# C  a+ C1 O  l# X0 w
24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.2791 ]) a8 n# t! Z+ }6 B( S/ e' g
25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.272; b6 F0 ~- s" ~3 B( c; u

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
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7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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