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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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! v  T) F/ s* t& F/ R* \4 P  W只跟踪一个联赛8 W$ w5 \3 e+ J
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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔1 v& s3 ^' i  H4 D8 ^6 `* h
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱& \) o8 I( E6 u; E  @

% R+ s" y. c5 q( u5 i当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，/ D. s( K: [# j  V
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
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/ `( N) G+ b% V* Q2 a, c- S但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。, o; r4 P3 K# y- F$ I* j
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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。5 S; G: {9 M! X0 \

" t; u$ T1 J" L" F6 H排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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5 B* U  C4 l* N0 m- x# s但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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这比买国债存银行合算。
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- O) X+ Q6 B/ B4 Y, F在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，/ w4 `+ m+ U. Z8 I
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。' D$ G) v( z; n
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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。0 N6 ~# ~' T: J: p

/ ~; m1 l' p& C2 e- Y* O3 d/ d放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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就是回避了大的亏损，
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# X3 m- V7 s1 _# |( L大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，& S/ _& Z6 y0 I9 O# t

+ I; e/ [6 U7 V8 e( c回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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