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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑8 M, u7 H$ I% e8 `' ^+ t
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& p6 D* Z Q5 q* O3 ]凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k1 Z5 Z' p. X/ q" ?! D* w
' x: ]" U; x3 W3 O( R
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)' j2 W9 p% y$ T$ ]; ?9 ?" o5 C- i
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [) A" m! i7 s0 P# ]& p4 U1 d
& O8 n' t8 i) q9 F& }- {( X
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h2 B, Y/ x, [+ f, f/ w
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ 3 g; j0 ~; D/ ]! f1 l
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s' W/ J: F9 O6 _" I
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `& R) |8 w: Q1 y6 W% o+ R" L5 r
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d0 a7 B* m7 q# w$ Z
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
0 O: l* O# j0 d4 B# r* W3 b& I$ O( M \9 @7 E1 r- X. T, f
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
0 _6 D# k8 f4 [/ ^$ s/ H/ E& P, u. a
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
& }% W, k6 W3 `. M1 H6 t, H; D: ]# @) Y# a @0 D, V4 f Y' B. G$ |. ^
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
( d H) C( c2 U8 v8 M+ v8 _& }- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
) `) S, J2 b2 x! B' c7 c我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 4 f; H3 E2 y0 O* ?( V
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c% s. ? D1 J' p0 X
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 0 F8 l9 {2 ]( Y6 X9 a" h
- b3 d& y; b" J- B( pS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
& a- a7 B8 N! p& Q' T2 h3 O% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s- D$ S' m" Z( ~. P5 ~
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 + Y7 g* |3 n* a3 g5 {8 u
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
' s0 }6 |) g6 o: ^# DS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
9 Z/ L! P/ u$ C7 c9 I8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v0 A1 m1 q- i U1 J" F& B$ r
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 7 r" X$ ~3 m2 R+ @' A0 I% s- z
5 U+ M5 B9 i6 y- M) S
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l( L: \" {! Q; X/ W, q+ ? F
# t! s: h' v4 C& g$ {
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q. z. u( R/ c; ^7 P7 Z
j, a7 O/ [+ h, T/ w+ }0 j
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
9 K& l: ~6 G9 v: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r( h+ A# z4 e( b6 F {8 @; ^
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
6 W, d3 E2 t5 H$ ?; f/ O4 ?/ \# U, N) c- }
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
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S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; 2 n( T6 ?# B, M2 I4 P
! q: b7 @) N0 M0 \" fS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s( w* ? v+ c% {
; m' V% T, u, P% O
5 \( u. K5 }, K. Z }S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
; U; x$ |& J6 M9 w" c6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a! w0 A1 B; U9 k6 w* o
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 4 n1 o: G" V, e1 z4 p
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
* q; A) l; V5 W- r" t6 x(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o& p1 D3 @1 o6 a! z, p) D I0 U
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \7 u; j% @: g R. W$ z. W" \
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
% S' j& b9 V, j' x) a5 p I1 V) q( ], k9 L T& t# C. t" ~8 }8 d0 D
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 ! c$ z$ m. h* p: r: i% _2 ^0 c
, M) {/ {: B0 B0 q9 M
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 8 _' T7 `" g/ p( [3 S. [
" C0 I e( w5 ]3 s7 k8 X6 j于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?9 ^% H1 ~* G, `
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
5 F# S7 U; P% oG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M5 a. I% n" m I; x$ H& {/ J* A
+ D$ n) P# X# M
8 ?$ N2 `% O- M. X# d; F ~G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 " Z) s4 w- \9 }, e! J+ ^9 N9 O
% r- t2 j+ N9 C5 V! b
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
' n2 S8 p% }+ M7 s2 ]2 D: u3 c- e* O( q, `
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \+ i% k$ |/ m2 i; f! C4 L& o+ t
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
4 g( g/ n4 Q- f( N' J8 {6 v通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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