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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑
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) U' a* \! S$ S' p' c其实原文标题不是这样的2 Z: E$ n; K1 a' ?5 ?9 V
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这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!9 c) P: @% B- ^$ Y. y+ c
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
* C; h4 ~$ d& X1 f' }* |9 f, H) Z他希望能和上帝来场赌局。* D; c+ V5 C3 H5 ]
/ f( ^+ l; J) W. A 「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。
1 ?6 s; u, e8 I& _8 [, |2 I+ S; N9 h3 X2 I% U
「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」
; d7 l+ |! Z8 a8 d# L
' U- A' R: [- a6 R A' ]! P「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」
3 A3 Z& h3 u# V0 A7 v. L8 ^「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
1 f# }- b) I4 J
3 N3 y# Y1 I. f4 x7 Z9 e 上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
8 U4 n+ L+ \' @" d/ ?9 K ~ 0 a, |* M) {0 ~) g8 W u
接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，; H) Y: {4 m C3 Q1 K5 |, |7 U: ~1 C
因此铜板较容易出现正面。
6 H u. l) f9 p6 T) d7 Q3 R ?0 |. m长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。
7 u$ W% ]# e. b/ l ~! j2 s8 Z因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。. R+ t( \/ N0 Z) f- {
心想赢定了。) _6 ?8 M2 V4 a) e6 w% J2 L7 c1 s
# O# s, X" w, r& w. G5 C没想到开始不到半刻钟，) i& c# J2 p+ V7 P% {/ f+ U9 c
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」
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1 r) P3 O! g+ u# Y赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，3 h3 B% z7 Q1 F% p3 ]9 Y; A
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。 S3 N1 a+ u1 C6 l# C- S, v
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赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?# Q5 }: }8 w% _
他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
8 f. R: x \( D9 f+ c' Z- Q- n
上帝回答道：
3 L) m! D8 I, q. h. a; P0 d「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」
4 v' s: d9 r6 b/ n" }% \0 D「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
3 {( o. {6 Z! E8 M! J" t「而不是先发生在我身上。」1 N' j0 w1 J* d- Q* U6 ]$ t
! K7 l4 D9 C& d: S. y$ j
赌徒恍然大悟，
6 `) |/ }% n: U0 r原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，$ q/ F# ]: \# u0 n$ u. T1 r
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！
6 X- t6 _9 O/ v) u3 ~" K「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」
. X$ Z- g \- B9 h, D上帝说完便不见踪影。 1 @# F4 m. K; X" g- t2 J. [
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，
; T w$ S" m2 e Q' Q4 I$ \若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，! ~0 g" `( e7 p% k z7 Q
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
4 {' B& K- v) j: s对赌徒十分有利。
( x4 e! _. Q- I! ]3 K# J
% b2 X$ }/ X+ ]+ u8 j& X( a0 j但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，4 o) r- _$ | i8 W
在还没掷到1000次之前，
6 h2 ~( W1 P: I- t5 n仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。0 `. G; D1 t, D6 ?7 C1 \
) ^* W8 a5 F) U5 F) Y3 t1 U 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。- F% f6 ^% `; |$ Y0 k/ J
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事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
6 h7 U. w& U7 ^6 P0 Q" W, Z `2 T9 `: J
市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，& U3 H( o+ d* i R6 E
4 q/ @% C ]6 }; j/ T( _ 永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！
0 P# @( A- h5 ?: V S" j" w1 `: i+ I& ^' s. f" N8 h# n0 i/ s% }
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