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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 7 I! Q/ K$ ]" \ {
余勋也不例外、
7 W0 L0 T# Q, y7 q; V& [其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
; U' N u- S/ ?$ S1 G是保经济的重要决策！ ! S0 {0 c3 f }1 A1 y' o
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 # J. y, I3 w. ]* B
低点26700-32400、 ' F. n% u1 I; a
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 1 }. q7 ], b) L$ A! D
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
( @( o |; J! N3 U大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 / O' W; H: ^) c5 h. \; x& c
涨幅就已回撤过半！
4 S0 H+ w! [" Q. _& I" [+ b所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
' F2 `' r# A2 H1 o" ?) l; e, y不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 9 Y7 m4 M) H5 a
其次、
) g& u( T; ^7 ?4 ]5 m缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
* E1 M1 z" R6 c# Q* ^7 ?' m! k每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 ) k. s9 u8 Z$ c- D3 S
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 + M; g. _4 X4 z) K9 C* B y
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
8 y, [1 D+ n; N% r但回到币圈、 9 c( d4 c3 G5 U& { r# L7 w* H: s
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
3 j% j( E0 x, [+ e+ G2 P9 h在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 % c% v% `7 R- }: E/ C8 C
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
% p: ^0 Z- E* C; J! T个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 / _% T1 d9 C% P( G2 N; U: y
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
1 Y# `! b$ j$ f$ T' t对当前的底部、影响有限。
' X2 ^' C6 S. w* j最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 ( I; b6 b; A0 B/ K% A
所以27000、即是
* }8 `/ K6 I- X( Q* i" A去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
6 E1 y* F+ E$ u同时还是去年放水初期低点、
" }" m8 [" m; B6 X5 G% m% {也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
$ w4 [ t$ k, k, @4 r* P- Q% f0 y, @由此得出的结论是、 * f" o6 D4 b4 }
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
) t0 o. Y$ a/ `. L% j; g点位不会出现太大偏离。 : i: n+ D: }: e
综合以上、 . s4 q" u6 t: g
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 1 ]; S$ p# i4 c# Q% z
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 : f8 D0 P7 ~7 ^" v$ x5 V7 z
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 1 |4 ?0 F& `4 I8 ?4 G0 D
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 * |& ]9 v0 U' o" e/ G5 H, }- z
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
) E5 b; v) K3 g- t即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 : X4 m7 [8 }2 y; w4 H- Y2 Q5 ]
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
0 L- a: \! Q; R+ R夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 % f5 Y+ r1 Z; E, |
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 - f) M5 i- n4 |+ l0 I% L1 n9 @: T
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
5 @( u# Y. @$ z G- h) A高空需至31700-32000间布局、
% @. y/ I) q* T反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 ; D0 b# {0 Z0 o7 M- {1 ^, d7 B+ I
得不偿失。 - m9 C( U+ P: w* ]+ k5 p
来源：金色财经 |
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