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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人, Q4 M5 g6 v- y8 H) I
) I! t; ?& N$ b& ?7 C1 w- Q/ t认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，: O5 S: v: D! f
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而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
/ O/ Y l# y& g- `1 W& ?. x; z7 b
" I" \' f* W- d$ P- z的千禧一代。2 a; Y6 o6 G0 W$ `/ y% j# N
从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB% V# Y: ?' ^" L4 f3 a% w2 m8 w. M9 n
$ {$ s( ?3 G/ b" k的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“) S3 d; r' R$ X, N3 D! d
& j, i+ E; F- @ 时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加% N& K0 R2 A) C4 U- A" j1 I
) l+ \, B, V" @7 L3 o# u
密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据# C, ~5 z3 h( F0 h# |0 j
3 V! p; X$ g: p- D
《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成* G6 ]7 D+ k% H1 f! b- e3 t* _
4 I) x* y- u- U) v6 S的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
# u) j, m# d6 p$ ~+ T( j3 B& c' Q* s
报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；/ E w0 x. ~' k: p% o# G
$ S+ f: g6 x. c) s
10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为4 T) k c0 Y6 o; v g3 w3 }- V
/ j/ I) c) ]' OETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。8 ]; w) D9 h' f5 o& U7 m; x3 s( M
& o- D: N$ }# y9 A) g* z/ p( z据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降
, u U4 b8 `8 X3 a' D4 I; v$ I% s6 K3 r2 r) h" O: U+ L
息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。6 I% V3 d, ?/ | B
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与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密2 f3 @8 B& _ r& M% X$ D. w! U* Q
* V$ ~/ A/ d- h ^/ @, Q8 [* Y! i世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富
+ G' t- H8 g( P. {
6 O$ H" G. r4 J+ e传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
1 b) r* w- l: L5 \4 G2 i6 E$ }8 v7 X. k) G2 d; r4 {- s2 Y
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一
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+ F5 k( y( Q& w0 S6 p5 I/ B代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成% F% q, A- M- P* ]/ j: t3 \
7 F! p0 }+ c; D7 X本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体" W. ]7 f7 @ _) S, W
! K L% E% I' g4 z$ T M/ A# }: K系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货/ c6 w9 Y) ^7 g3 t/ k* {& H
/ X3 Z1 H' f$ N7 c+ B7 B5 E
币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致& k6 x0 D3 r6 _# _
$ n u" q7 _! L1 \4 B
未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富. O8 O' Z' H7 B; X" e- Z2 I
: X* a4 p# \% O6 W6 }; ]) W/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。# _8 f: K4 R- u% f% K8 K
9 x* @' @, r* k, d6 U1 `! ^$ H) ]
6 {# b+ F$ H4 w( Q! Y. {4 }
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