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8 O1 z% |& n d! W# d$ V
加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为# }# X) M0 F8 W; ~8 ]
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，3 S/ F3 Q' Z F3 x) A4 C' D
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。
$ G, g4 D' V0 d一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
7 N' `* Y- A: Y) }0 D6 H- ZBTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。
! Y) Q5 ~3 X( Q( i$ Q, \2 @: BPantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：# ~9 j0 F% i7 R" A5 S k O5 d" m7 m7 h
2024年4月第四次减半
( N* t6 l# D3 W; G( `机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
# e4 f* P; ?2 V- k2 u# {可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
5 {, @! G1 C& Y$ @针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
' Y. ^$ |$ ]0 K! m二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
; e' k: U8 F. K% ~( m3 Z w9 [friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。; f( {, t5 O# i8 `/ k( q* h
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠& R q) _ V) u3 ^
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。
N- _! P. s' ^' o三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁
$ R+ W. Q/ J2 e: R. N除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
4 m8 E% ^* V+ v0 T金融(TradFi)产品。- N/ i% O' M M: i" V2 \. ~
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨
x4 ~! a( z9 ]; T% N& y链桥」的项目。% k* Y+ K: G- T/ z4 L: _) K
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
, @4 u$ d3 |: U* H) B模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作+ S& W: D6 O, V' B6 k
等。+ s- E* \1 m3 G: n8 q* p! Y/ a
Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用0 h0 y! j4 B# n$ N" g
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
8 e$ ~4 W9 G$ h7 x: Z3 G9 o. _五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
0 T" @+ l7 x, N/ X( `7 n$ EPantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
# D: Z2 K$ v6 k- g* I数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。
+ K( h; d! @) l5 ?: c2 ?" Q( gPantera点名了几个项目：
. \8 z( J: U2 j% I! v! S, l. ?Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图0 L/ B. `+ |$ V* b. m- V4 ?
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台
V: _0 U1 n- l& G$ h k- RModulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
$ O3 `! J' o5 S' ZThe Graph：链上知识图谱计划% i8 {4 w4 T# u& X+ P4 j
Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游
/ B5 G( W# }3 E. f% v六、小型公链需专注特定应用
% L1 ^; X1 l7 [3 w1 ePantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
3 }% y, R7 V& ]至能直接与L2竞争。" `: B( U2 G% w( m, I# Q0 N+ j; C
也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。# @0 G0 R1 ]+ b' N/ F' J. X+ S$ d
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
3 f5 F- h* R5 F成为「应用链」。
& h& f& R. c9 c$ c4 G事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。
# m) E0 H- {+ H5 a8 T7 E! D' X& ^( G& B* Q- l" W- i, t% d3 B; y
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