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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
0 ?- [6 c. r& w" v1 W O - ]* N5 p) R& H7 n5 }! n4 r
平手中水,主队有利5 {1 R+ J- b2 ^( X, m6 t
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
; T1 Z/ B$ p+ q" g9 l 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
) U, Q; w. I7 ?- h+ D& f 英超主队' a; v- v4 Z" w; O; ~: |7 b6 G
胜:13场 48%
. G( t+ v* b- l$ T+ }3 T/ _ 平:5场 17%1 R/ I( V( T4 D( z: M
负:9场 35%& W$ I% ^% R7 E( e( F
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。3 [! s" r/ E* S0 \7 g" \. [6 Z3 F
% Q% z+ d) c4 m' I& ?3 G 一、初盘阶段* d9 m: A) \" K
具体到水位如下:
" h+ ]) i7 \% t5 z0 f! | 初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
6 B. G9 x3 `4 A 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
/ q6 ~% U4 x1 |: C, M f, y1 D 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负+ _* a4 f' ^1 ]. Z# m6 o
% C( [: o) v, o0 U; S 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
+ n' {% M7 r- @* I6 \* b7 f 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
( k" c4 A4 N0 ?5 G4 r/ P 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。3 F4 l _4 z4 q0 A! y3 E1 J9 t n
# ~: }1 ~1 }& |( x1 Z
二、临场阶段* ?8 q- |# J# z8 ^; B+ v% h0 \
4 E+ o6 ]3 m1 \
具体到变盘和水位如下:
0 \ g7 ]3 W" g+ Q& ?! D! H1 R 临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负# K7 c* A# A2 z' W5 s1 x
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
( n( K) R3 `2 w. ?* O% y
# B4 O6 Z' j6 j$ l! m 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。7 C& R5 z5 X" d; N$ d# P1 \
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:9 `3 Y3 N2 \6 |0 x: |5 t3 Y
* @1 r% \' W7 i% B 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿; ]- ]* B' H- A2 |
初盘:0.82平手1.044 x: g# Q7 a; @. v7 g$ g
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85, |4 ?2 x8 T$ G" L& W+ a5 q
$ i0 J! \0 y1 X* m f0 A8 t+ T
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆3 k o g2 E7 o; M) C- L, X" n: ^1 D
初盘:0.76平手1.10, c, t% M G( O
终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
& K- a4 P2 k/ f- i7 W1 g+ w& |$ C ; n) G0 |8 Z+ [; G! {0 E2 ]* V9 V
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
( X8 F$ q% U: j/ d( e8 b" p 初盘:0.82平手1.04
& g* U9 J: D+ [+ v7 u 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
) T" j( z* } e. d I+ M- ] 0 o9 K6 ~% Z: B, E! X: w4 |! e7 ?
伯恩利2-1西汉姆' Y) w- h/ C( |( J1 I* ^) U
初盘:0.88平手0.98
4 L6 i/ `* G: x; Y; O 终盘:1.12平/半0.74
2 {3 d% h1 m) I 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。' k5 I7 j0 K* v* P* y0 e
提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
: m+ R- \ t: e/ @ 提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
' K0 w" `, a% W2 ]# Q, z( k 5 v' ?3 g9 |5 t9 k4 i
三、球队表现
( }( q7 d" ^0 X9 c _ / V0 W6 ?" ~1 g( O, Z! k3 w- f7 x3 v
结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
8 c9 b0 q: X% b9 F n, r
0 t4 d* u$ E( O4 f: O! q 四、投注要点4 I. X2 g& z+ U5 Z% \' |
要点1:平手中水、主多不败8 j2 k) q5 E& Y9 w# r
要点2:平手降盘、走两头
4 c) R& l2 l# _+ l8 V 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
% U; ]) U1 O! k, q/ {* F, L$ R% C 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
4 t8 i, Q" I) p3 \ 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
+ }9 C% t' e9 } ?8 q% {% n: J 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大+ |+ R3 D/ o# C; l; t
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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