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[lastpost] => 2691577 模因币 Gordon Gekko($WEPE)将在两周后于Best Wallet上线(转) 1731683592 DBSD
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随着价格的整合,比特币的需求已降至近几周的最低水平。然而,交易所比特币供应的减少使得价格大幅下跌成为可能。 @$ c4 c0 u! l1 u' I
自8月5日从下跌中恢复以来,比特币[BTC]的交易区间在56K-62K美元之间。+ V- r7 H' B# s$ P
8 Q3 p, k- ?$ C# w- d自8月8日以来,价格没有跌破或超过这一区间,这表明可能会出现盘整或市场不确定性。1 L2 H, C9 A" r% i5 P: |
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阻止该区域以上出现重大突破的因素之一是比特币需求增长疲软,根据CryptoQuant的数据,比特币需求仍处于较低水平。最近几周,这甚至变成了负面的。
' i: {7 U( h, y9 A
* C- E+ ?) p: T6 D2 y2024年4月,比特币的需求达到了三年来的峰值,恰逢比特币减半事件。然而,自那以后,它已降至今年的最低水平。
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那么,为什么比特币的需求会下降呢?; a/ N5 _! b. W' j( k
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观察ETF和鲸鱼活动
1 _9 H! z8 G7 @' K7 Y5 z分析指出,流入现货比特币ETF的资金正在枯竭。3月,随着BTC飙升至历史高点,比特币ETF的平均每日购买量为12500 BTC。
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上周降至1300 BTC。
8 y$ J/ N, ~" ?0 f( e
& A* t) `' n. X3 A% s从SoSoValue上可以看出,自8月9日以来,流入现货比特币ETF的资金总额一直低于1亿美元大关。虽然这些产品拥有超过550亿美元的净资产,但需要购买活动来提振整体需求。% d6 I3 L: ~* ] G1 S+ Q' |( v; M
$ l* L5 p' P8 i" q0 a7 V" B+ E鲸鱼似乎也在减少他们的比特币股份。30天平均鲸鱼持有量已从2月份的6%降至1%。这是自2021年2月以来每个CryptoQuant的最快下降。4 v4 V+ @2 x/ A/ |1 M) {
5 P; ]) J/ d+ K+ T# J鲸鱼在支持比特币价格增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用。鲸鱼持有量的减少表明整个市场普遍看跌。
! _8 d2 r% {! d$ G! d8 h# ~1 |, T8 ?4 r. C
Santiment的数据进一步证实了鲸鱼活动的减少,该数据显示,自3月以来,持有1000至10000枚比特币的比特币地址大幅下降。; E# A& F) m" d' s! V% h
" g ~2 p# Z g( ?6 N# g7 V, m8 S尽管鲸鱼活动放缓,但长期比特币持有者增加了头寸。这些持有者一直在以每月约391000 BTC的速度增加他们的BTC持有量。
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比特币会突破其区间吗?: C8 B% x; ~, J; c8 i
随着对比特币需求的放缓,人们不禁要问,比特币是否会突破5.6万至6.2万美元的区间。对链上数据的深入研究描绘了一幅严峻的画面。/ h8 d h( Z) R+ X# u4 y
0 B9 P* N4 E7 C根据IntoTheBlock的数据,超过300万个地址以这个价格范围购买了比特币。以这些价格买入的新投资者并没有获得可观的利润。
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因此,突破62000美元将面临抛售压力,因为他们急于获利。' Z5 S3 G6 U, I
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技术指标也无法证明突破的必要性。相对强弱指数(RSI)也保持区间震荡,购买势头没有显著飙升。, D. m# w- O# j. S @5 G- c: e
8 I3 B7 M% z* l, x! G+ x位于积极区域的Awesome Oscillator显示出上升趋势。然而,短直方图条指向可能减弱的上升趋势。
$ M- l+ u# }' e7 L2 D7 p然而,由于交易所比特币供应量下降,短期内不太可能出现低于当前范围的急剧下降趋势。
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$ Q( C" q7 i8 ?1 c. m% S+ V7 P根据CryptoQuant的数据,交易所供应比率在过去一年中急剧下降。因此,尽管需求明显较低,但外汇供应也较低,从而降低了大幅回调的风险。
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