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[lastpost] => 2680185 防止货币通胀还是买BTC靠谱啊 1727443137 爱美的女人
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随着价格的整合,比特币的需求已降至近几周的最低水平。然而,交易所比特币供应的减少使得价格大幅下跌成为可能。* {; ?- J1 c( E0 z4 } S
自8月5日从下跌中恢复以来,比特币[BTC]的交易区间在56K-62K美元之间。. ?4 J+ o/ |0 l, b
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自8月8日以来,价格没有跌破或超过这一区间,这表明可能会出现盘整或市场不确定性。3 V" {; r. S& C8 k! Y4 L! l+ `
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阻止该区域以上出现重大突破的因素之一是比特币需求增长疲软,根据CryptoQuant的数据,比特币需求仍处于较低水平。最近几周,这甚至变成了负面的。9 Y. [3 W/ o' M: }- T
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2024年4月,比特币的需求达到了三年来的峰值,恰逢比特币减半事件。然而,自那以后,它已降至今年的最低水平。
! O$ c! y* _! O+ @$ D/ D' Q, m" {9 q' K' S
那么,为什么比特币的需求会下降呢?
$ q8 A0 i5 g/ v2 r3 U9 _ K' V0 s2 G% O) o8 X7 K4 ~7 ^1 @+ v" c; j
观察ETF和鲸鱼活动
+ ~2 h' l. h. ?5 v0 v分析指出,流入现货比特币ETF的资金正在枯竭。3月,随着BTC飙升至历史高点,比特币ETF的平均每日购买量为12500 BTC。
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上周降至1300 BTC。/ {6 C8 ]6 e1 L% I
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从SoSoValue上可以看出,自8月9日以来,流入现货比特币ETF的资金总额一直低于1亿美元大关。虽然这些产品拥有超过550亿美元的净资产,但需要购买活动来提振整体需求。
5 H( ]/ U0 |9 _: }, G
; F, v& L5 p+ F x: v/ t2 U" J鲸鱼似乎也在减少他们的比特币股份。30天平均鲸鱼持有量已从2月份的6%降至1%。这是自2021年2月以来每个CryptoQuant的最快下降。
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5 b0 a; ~6 Y$ e' S$ k/ U# u7 Z0 S鲸鱼在支持比特币价格增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用。鲸鱼持有量的减少表明整个市场普遍看跌。
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Santiment的数据进一步证实了鲸鱼活动的减少,该数据显示,自3月以来,持有1000至10000枚比特币的比特币地址大幅下降。
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1 K0 O }- m; F6 M3 D尽管鲸鱼活动放缓,但长期比特币持有者增加了头寸。这些持有者一直在以每月约391000 BTC的速度增加他们的BTC持有量。
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比特币会突破其区间吗?; s! Z3 J4 V) O% ?/ e. X" _+ U/ L/ k) N
随着对比特币需求的放缓,人们不禁要问,比特币是否会突破5.6万至6.2万美元的区间。对链上数据的深入研究描绘了一幅严峻的画面。
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根据IntoTheBlock的数据,超过300万个地址以这个价格范围购买了比特币。以这些价格买入的新投资者并没有获得可观的利润。
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因此,突破62000美元将面临抛售压力,因为他们急于获利。
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6 n2 V1 A. m0 X& M. J4 q& k3 Y9 Z; Y! n技术指标也无法证明突破的必要性。相对强弱指数(RSI)也保持区间震荡,购买势头没有显著飙升。/ g2 k! a$ y8 E) T2 k) R' g2 x
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位于积极区域的Awesome Oscillator显示出上升趋势。然而,短直方图条指向可能减弱的上升趋势。
0 ^- `+ n# ^8 ~0 X6 n! X% e' @& g( R然而,由于交易所比特币供应量下降,短期内不太可能出现低于当前范围的急剧下降趋势。
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根据CryptoQuant的数据,交易所供应比率在过去一年中急剧下降。因此,尽管需求明显较低,但外汇供应也较低,从而降低了大幅回调的风险。5 e! q! A. l; v& a( W
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