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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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7 U, C% Z) H& M: X9 `9 G 比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。( h5 i. R, H% t+ Y' f! r% S
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3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。% W# `2 F* Q6 x6 O& o. f1 ^/ O
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比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续 v7 q; j9 \, P7 s3 s7 E2 R4 D
1 G7 l0 n! y+ e! @* n$ P G$ M Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。! _# V: [# U% |! _
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尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。. N) A/ b/ e7 T; h7 X
8 k- B0 z5 p2 A5 _# z7 L% T/ | 市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。
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7 M9 _& e) |$ q% B% q e 针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。" X- f$ u6 Z" |; W: H, B
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，
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价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。
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“从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”( Q O) e) o' e2 M1 e. @* _
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5 ~( N8 M# e6 i 知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。- |. v$ i d& p9 u L( D& y
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“$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在
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! t& M( u7 z$ R6 i2 v5 @1 m) s8 K积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”. j" u+ Z* i) N: G6 l; K, T G, ?
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早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。 X4 \+ j/ t# ]' d3 O) `
" A$ x* f# S$ s) e N4 f 与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。
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. X5 L# Q: W; S x* L7 ? 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势
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7 R, J- m$ \. ? 当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。" y% o+ y: T, G: Y7 @/ @& K
( k! G: W, U% r6 ` z0 e, S0 o 监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。
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* N8 b- Y- P4 o7 F- b* Y, H 该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，% t, j6 A' T: j6 e5 C7 U9 {/ Z
) l- \- \, x9 g/ |& n( U市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”: v6 v9 L+ }. V: J# U3 d6 l5 P
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