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[lastpost] => 2818373 美国通过新法案将比特币挖矿活动限制在国内——这对加密货币为何至关重要？（转） 1774923767 小钱儿
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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( r1 A% q' b5 T瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心! l* T3 i8 O, G4 p2 S8 E9 u
4 {2 v! I! A# |* N4 [' d& C( D衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
* y% I; w1 D* o7 w- ?( j美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金6 I% t# p$ P. r/ t+ b) J
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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7 W: s- J9 F2 g" S$ _1 J4 W过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益% A# s7 S1 _1 }% \" C: d1 L; q
& J7 ^2 V$ x8 Z6 c1 q: c8 \: e率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。 T2 k7 [" Z5 j+ E. u
9 A; b6 r: j1 K+ A; {, f. \8 z然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
7 n5 X }8 | e5 \& y7 ]4 f' Y( g8 x$ j& Q$ R& g
长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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# l4 o* {0 x3 A; s是表示：
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" q$ ]5 ]' c+ H' u: t这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。' f# P# y! i, \
5 K% F7 d) y3 t& i. g- v( U, z历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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& Y/ ~6 c# h! N! t) S特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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( ?5 W! d. l- N9 i( \标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：. K: `3 G) C/ g' a% \* w! [0 i
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周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。
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周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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1 m8 n P, L7 }) ~+ ^5 n" Z$ K5 S周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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收益率冲高回落。1 f( m0 e& B% ~! M. G) C; I
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周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。
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: }/ U% Z- K+ A2 k' o# `$ N周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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) u6 z7 B0 M; K, G# l* o- K3 pLoomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，+ m4 o. J' z; ]# a8 i9 ~
; g9 P- z6 U0 p: _是的，这正是我们所看到的。"3 h- r5 O0 C' S- r
5 N# z- I1 c, {4 Q根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去; E' N, i( |$ q# Z
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。" v4 H p8 Z O) ~8 y% E1 }; c5 T
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Renaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"0 x: y: C. ~/ k# G
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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