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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
: R5 M, q( x+ S3 j/ X( m) e
3 z4 N, E [: a+ K! @3 E, ?7 z衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
0 z2 A) v. Z- u7 u( \* z6 h1 R8 M美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金0 g% [$ s. N' p# M6 }; L1 a6 j
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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; E; w* T* w1 ?0 i S, n( {7 C过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益
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; k2 v- p* X0 M" W率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。# B& f, K) a/ n# u* a% G4 H0 t
' ~ o* w* p7 J1 ?然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更: a% H! w- x& X4 H
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是表示：5 w! M$ d( T) Y q* f
3 b( T# x" E; e `$ ~; L这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。: |; P" i. y% i7 ~
9 @* N' [4 [6 K8 w( |6 r历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币. k4 [8 t+ n S, X2 N% g5 V+ L
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史* X7 q& u* f) Q/ [- @8 x
" F6 K" k& T2 M( Y5 ~( l; X标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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; A, D4 X5 r, N F4 e$ v周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。3 {( y7 K, z6 Q" s$ c; t
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周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债' `- |" ^. q* B
: Y* E+ I g+ k2 f收益率冲高回落。
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( c/ c$ P! m8 M5 f6 \! t7 T周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。
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8 m; B* V$ F& q Z C h$ r周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。- z9 y% a8 w0 i7 Y
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，
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是的，这正是我们所看到的。"7 P. E( Z, ?8 T* Q: Y0 j
6 c2 k6 c1 _: a/ ~/ n/ Q根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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" f: P, S: b2 l1 C年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。
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: V* c" d- [- d5 W3 ?Renaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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