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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
: s) e' I; o3 ^5 z8 b/ O7 x: ? L1 f3 u" t( t/ i
, \/ _0 f4 o0 u! t3 p: {* k9 P \西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率8 ~' F6 Q; w2 q. ]) w5 f2 x
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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$ m/ Y$ e' Y0 P! |" Q皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% % f# q. L2 f J& u: w
. W0 K) t8 F+ J, b很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
/ |9 y3 b8 _/ ^6 T- q2 c
/ |& P! r8 e: l答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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$ _0 a% g/ t; K, o: X0 T& S+ s* ^8 `* `
盈利可能性+ N5 O) G% E$ v- T' D4 T) s) Y
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。. i, w% f3 d3 ?: f8 B! m4 @0 ?& n
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增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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% d. x9 o0 O- U/ O你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?" J- r( m' [0 A
6 B& T: I, b) @: f. j; n/ r$ w
a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
P8 V" R0 j! Q# B; p; R8 Y: `& o
6 X: `, E6 j* V: |4 {2 j, ?正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
" }$ h* F" E% F* K3 r$ W( |+ ?5 C, T8 ~0 _( w) w) u# c" E# s7 Q
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
6 |& d2 Y2 {, r60%的机会你会一无所有2 M- v; _3 g; G) O, A1 J
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
6 R& G8 w9 Z, O. S+ i& V由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。. p$ T. Q5 V! K
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。) A) C4 e7 H$ j# p; Z( y- z5 p
- r5 b+ r4 u7 u$ [基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。3 G* K( O5 v& D& B7 A
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金
& n* Y4 u- V, l% `5 Z# h/ NP=获胜机会: G; r# A* S; H9 g3 ]
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)/ w2 i: Y* E+ j, F/ N3 m0 a$ O
# n) h. B6 [8 C首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。) s7 |* w( Z/ n5 S" |7 E% b$ D% @
: b( U. S( }, T/ K" U3 }好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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& O& S! q# S& a1 p1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0
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0 n* r* j1 g& W N: A结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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; s' C |: ~. x" ]8 @7 F: n2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)2 p Q9 s& C( v2 F- G
' q2 B2 b" ^% X9 X. o9 QA=0.11 [ r* o6 w) `8 X# t
$ ]0 b& C& G. A* Q' z
结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去# ]5 H; Z5 x# z8 {5 D* D
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)! Y$ c& i7 f2 e& a" ^# _6 F" }
# k; k+ @2 u& W" F' T: _- JA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1). J) W9 o8 U: _
2 s( p e) y T% RA= -0.2 9 K6 c* Q. x- g: t* y, {3 P
( {8 ^; x) a( ^ q0 {9 m* q: q结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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2 n; e# J. O- \# G7 S# s& f2 A/ f第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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