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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 4 m7 I; L! ~+ }1 C/ P

0 C1 x7 d+ |; F  T* E. [- ~& t- O
7 V" s" x1 f5 ]" z! U1 F只跟踪一个联赛. b+ i) C% F7 O

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4 |3 ]0 w( I' J* r' N全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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! ?  u& ?9 I1 O; D# z1 e% \三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，( l. M' s  \3 O& U2 B; U5 E

, A- b* h% ~# ~! J偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。. l  d9 t& M  p& ~

7 x4 z& G% g+ h7 @3 ~方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）" }+ c8 ^. O- \% F& M

$ P" z1 E4 f. }4 V然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
6 |! t$ C7 p5 f5 f$ [  r, F8 p' N3 F( J
就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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# a, i4 A7 l6 Y; i+ q& }8 f当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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1 o: z. z* r' ?; ?; Q7 ]/ u4 t
亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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, g# N7 ~, Y9 i/ _# ?- w而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，4 V9 l5 s8 n4 n6 P4 n) U* Q! A

3 }! {/ J2 r/ g1 f/ t8 s但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。. w8 G$ c" u' X7 p# ]& P! t( X
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! y1 i$ i; ^2 {* \4 U) I: [+ C理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
5 d& f- j% ]3 V2 \1 G" o+ F) [$ E* A# u) ~( j# l# ^: C8 d* H# [
排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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顶起再慢慢看

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
8 Q: P5 y* `6 z* B* }5 B3 \7 \; d$ G) ?' Z* ~5 m) ~) B3 [$ h$ x
但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，2 T# m# K3 G1 {" c! {! h. D  u" v- ^& B
+ }, `7 }% b# P; V0 w; |0 E
这比买国债存银行合算。
0 v7 C2 O2 I6 @$ }& L& p, T' \, d9 t2 B4 X( X. d/ D9 f; G; ?
在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
4 F, N) M+ Z  L: c) w3 _0 W
# c- |1 {' L) H几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。; j) u* `6 V" J, J9 h% l5 B
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) P2 _* u% \; E9 w常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
7 ~0 p0 {3 _9 S9 [" W! H
2 h# B. v# c! N$ j放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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3 E5 w/ l9 }, P+ Q就是回避了大的亏损，
4 a- s, O1 ^: n- P( X& a3 C- o5 [- ]7 S# \6 ^
大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，
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6 Z" D7 F5 d* A) x7 R回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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