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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑: |' W$ K% v- j/ U, c
* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
* ?2 V t7 F# r' s凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
+ ~4 f9 j1 x w2 J0 ^& H! r- [1 H( z8 g( |
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
( m' Y. I4 i R' o, _什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [& ]1 P: D& y: ^ n9 M7 ?0 v
; \; s. {$ s& R4 i& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
6 R9 [9 m9 t4 C" Y5 c既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ l/ `! I+ T# u7 C1 \- T# a
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
$ u" S4 b0 X7 K1 t* L( e, \5 X* z) i2 W& q做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
- e2 {* U% i. E1 k! Y1 B; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d* U% B* W3 O) }" z! F _0 T
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n5 h( p+ n1 h* h; ]& @
$ M$ O" f8 h2 \(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 " l: \4 x/ \1 m4 v& p0 @4 C
. S I3 {3 U) s# Z1 I- R6 N(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
/ h2 S. v7 r, m ]4 U. y4 t8 Y% }% m' j( x3 t$ o
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
! J9 B' t& p. {& a1 |, T- ~; r# H- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _3 R0 T5 @, U# R/ W8 f7 ]- }
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
; e. \1 F4 ]( N6 C, W$ Y5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
7 B% S" ]* s5 w( }( cS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 + u) `- J% \% P% r, G
) Q% k; J: P4 Q4 n8 q1 FS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
1 L& f1 k9 d4 B, ?% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
* S8 e2 M9 D1 h1 mS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
9 j. K8 F- v" F$ s! s5 ~9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j. d. @5 T. B7 W: @
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
! O) N% _, m( o& P8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
3 R# r4 U2 Y( Z9 j2 ^" e9 T1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
( }, G& w" j4 U+ R" |; B& s7 g5 S; v* L
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l2 i7 \% F7 ^6 Q$ x
* `# \8 T% Z7 q. z# K
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q* M* S2 ]' I# H* Y2 C
8 W5 j/ Z3 W2 d8 Y1 t, r2 w1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
5 m0 z1 u2 l. \. e: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
7 n7 M( z/ e) E. Y6 f& hS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T- _" Y" L( }- r$ f( t: P6 q7 a k
, p- C! G& m/ `) c8 U- }
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
- K% p) ^$ }+ W; R( ?3 Y2 X! L" S3 W& b' [
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
( ]- {5 Y' { T' R9 ~6 E
) m" R% z `# N& s2 J/ m* RS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s8 f$ _* X& P" |! t5 |" {7 \
; m' V% T, u, P% O7 Y; b1 Q9 X; Z6 {5 w- k8 s9 [* x
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 5 {% a8 X+ b, |. i a* m& f
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a/ E% Y$ W5 | |5 Z {9 U
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 3 m/ Q) s7 ^: e% q; F, x5 r
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~7 r+ c3 U5 z; Y. p' g! j9 E$ q7 {6 A
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o5 @6 z- \ f5 \# Z
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \( M1 ?* x3 k" B n5 Y* n2 i
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
$ K6 Q5 m W& F' S' M) q( ], k9 L T& t
7 Q2 [0 d# b6 D% RB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
# j% a1 K4 X9 {, }, W
/ i: H0 u, i- @9 U4 E) fF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
; N0 h5 |# I& K1 O: l
2 S" k; c1 l: X于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?4 K1 `1 S& g \5 B: e
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
- A$ f( w* X2 ^. `- e! r4 B1 `0 eG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M' U3 |# v) Z6 `( L7 u
+ D$ n) P# X# M- f# a9 X2 ?2 V, M& \% N2 R$ A
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
( z5 |/ S% e' J2 d& [2 {+ L& H% W1 s) E& J% F6 j6 M, e
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
9 f. I1 r f% z4 q `0 {
8 i) t7 o5 o/ p8 U, \3 ]' @当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
: a4 g! `0 S; z6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i5 W8 N: G* [+ A! F. K
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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