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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑1 Z2 i6 N$ A1 D. {: m% e
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: j7 e: z y; n A1 g% x凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k. P% Q0 Z; g0 P3 M4 `; W
! F; K* d4 }+ G/ i
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率); X$ C0 H+ d/ ~" @1 q' P9 S
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [$ z$ A8 D+ |3 w# @9 T& i o) y
7 x/ I7 n7 z8 @# K3 l7 c% S& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
H& x% w. A8 M" [既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
, `2 Y: T; y" p% v2 C7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s4 C. _4 p+ r8 h/ \) ^# H1 Q. Y; D& v
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
) b7 T7 S+ Y) y6 W6 x2 ~( _) c; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d' z. ]$ F. S! d3 f3 H
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
; |2 N5 ^- b9 S: \. Y
% o7 H7 w+ W8 W. o; `(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
4 `& e- t& A1 E5 ?$ I4 }5 C$ Z! _) h! s5 a5 [: x- m
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
2 f" D9 ]+ S( \' l
- T6 d i5 y2 t4 q0 s5 {(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 + G. _8 {: s5 R {
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
9 S- w. N& q. s我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 ; q. _5 Q$ K: d# ]
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
8 ~# O% S4 C- Q: d# A% z% ~) B3 rS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
' ^3 ]' r" A$ M. i
3 _7 Y" K& v0 }' A; LS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
3 u9 W$ A- W* j; Q+ S% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
; M2 c2 n7 s0 \5 [% O: \S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 ' E% ?, \6 x) @: O
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j- Z0 ~5 C! M Y- K0 Q2 a
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
) ^- X; ]' I+ }! s3 P2 |8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
, ^9 z. Q# Y% U1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
1 V1 G$ n9 @6 B& W% [1 i2 N. n' Q$ ]$ @
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l! d9 C" R" H+ z; v- v" p
- _0 m$ u2 _: ? }& z
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q6 l% ?# J! k3 B7 e- h5 i
; P7 x' G: E: }" H& }
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
6 c6 o# s0 s" g8 R; O7 F: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
1 Z, A5 g! Q: f, eS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
) p. t/ `8 w, Y. V
! _7 M! n7 d1 _6 ~ O$ E, o# H类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j7 r2 ~$ L+ V% b5 w( e
% ^1 `8 G$ E- y+ E9 _S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
) x4 E& y" n" H6 i* b: _: h% i
S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s# Y W% \: h0 ~: g
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/ G4 M; G- b0 M2 \8 r. zS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
' D* l9 [6 m% U5 k6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
- G" N) n* t) j- T( ?+ ?% IS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 ' |5 m, t4 B3 n, h
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
0 k6 I, d8 Q, K$ n0 S& U* V5 i(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o) F- Y r3 i- q& t; U1 U n, ~# v
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
: G9 V. v+ o" Z6 Z: A* P4 d7 N4 D好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 ! B, u( @# S9 X
) q( ], k9 L T& t
8 b! O# L, r$ S `. D; s: kB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 ) [5 C- I; C* {, l
( r |3 y: U1 t9 L) r: U/ }3 e: W1 K, [' JF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 , H4 j3 @- a* X
+ p! {- d7 A ]于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
. c; `) u8 A# H6 j/ E8 c' {6 W9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
% m5 y# j$ K8 X6 @+ |; N5 l! LG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
: b% J4 N3 ?! ^1 f) @& X+ D$ n) P# X# M
8 H6 K& [+ F5 t# L6 y2 |G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
* c X8 q) I1 c) l1 z+ [; \' p5 _
$ ^ g% v) }7 a# X- S$ j" x. ZG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]# ]& O- Z5 _6 I( s$ S
" m4 h9 `3 ^$ {- ]/ U+ W; l
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
( R$ \/ _. |" h1 T1 g4 b- P6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i1 P3 a5 v6 _! c
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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