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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 ( Z; {5 E$ ], U7 x. ~
余勋也不例外、 - [9 `3 [* y5 ^ ^" m' h
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 0 ?& D v; r, G
是保经济的重要决策！ 0 K3 ?4 k2 [. q' P- P$ V. u
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
; x9 b$ c- k5 u. {4 I低点26700-32400、
: v* F0 q' o9 O" E反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
* k/ j: _7 N P6 k但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 ' n. W" H# r n6 D Z$ x
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 Z$ K5 F. G6 O8 H8 j+ A
涨幅就已回撤过半！ I& K* @2 j8 g* U0 v+ W
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
$ U# V6 W& u: z6 E不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 6 s8 g5 F* c% f2 A0 |
其次、
" p* C- D* I% \- `: n- }缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
% P2 [% @( x8 r: D2 [, }: A每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
/ S P5 ~' d8 {6 y5 ~' O等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 ; |3 k. g/ N" b& Z+ a* c! ]( d
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
T7 ~& L. C% H3 {$ @/ b但回到币圈、 & x0 c9 H, ?; K( a! {9 }/ o% U
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
5 R g7 H) ?+ x: r在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 5 }( S1 P( H/ O2 X
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
/ g+ C) e' |, F1 m个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 5 W* W9 v$ r0 y$ G- ~6 r! O4 h
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
( d- T6 i2 E% g& X2 F1 r' w; Q' v对当前的底部、影响有限。 ) _4 p* s9 N1 I( Z
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
" @7 f. R: a+ ?0 @所以27000、即是
( [- ]7 t" {; S' K& p去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
1 H1 x4 u6 P- u$ P% A0 e( H- }; k同时还是去年放水初期低点、 g. b) v( J7 e; k
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 $ \7 d; [& E. E
由此得出的结论是、 2 m# N2 ]* V) ]9 _. W. J
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
( y$ H4 g2 W& m1 `0 b# e; K8 v点位不会出现太大偏离。 8 J3 G( N6 [0 ^- p# K
综合以上、
+ @8 ~0 R) [$ a美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 - Y1 x; K% b7 a* S: i6 f% s
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
9 g$ D3 f7 Z1 e2 W0 D- i那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
: ]1 ], k3 s5 }5 }1 [7 T抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
$ s: s; L5 _1 I那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
. Q* ]4 l7 [' D即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
, O4 E# _9 m- y0 b) [4 ?美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
) j6 l7 F$ L7 a! d) D' f+ f+ J夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
. [1 c$ A ], \1 Z; c大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 # [; \8 B& b) w5 a! E) l; P& L
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
, e# r6 d# i% y4 k# I' U4 T0 q+ D高空需至31700-32000间布局、
* V9 O% |; n& L I4 o反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 $ i5 L! K. l- }( ?0 I: N
得不偿失。 6 p C$ U) s+ X; ~/ @( c! |1 ^
来源：金色财经 |
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