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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
# {' O6 |4 _4 _# x余勋也不例外、
7 ]8 P2 L: a4 h其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 # Z/ u4 p/ l2 C5 A) E
是保经济的重要决策！
& m3 S. n/ k- @0 f, u这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 3 S; k1 s. s, x1 m' j" W
低点26700-32400、
1 \; \" N* I7 F. Q/ d' y; `反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
* Q- E" s6 c& f7 m但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 6 @0 [; O: q$ o2 r% D$ V4 Q
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 4 a: n8 m8 G V; {- u4 l
涨幅就已回撤过半！ / w+ F! X6 n. B' T0 D+ A8 K
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
% i5 C5 o8 I% }* h不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 5 F, o3 \* y! _$ K1 L0 ~
其次、
/ F$ D6 \* ]6 Y5 E5 w0 p3 C/ i缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 % L$ {0 B! U `7 {6 q% p
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 ; Q2 I# T% g( H. |8 v0 |
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 + W, l' [2 n U
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 ( `7 x% I4 H y4 d" `
但回到币圈、
4 J+ D( s }8 f' Q% U, d6 D( Y去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 2 l& `- l2 ?& W8 B4 s
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
W# ~& g5 h4 \" |. ~) p# O; _而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 . W! }/ F' z! `3 {# s8 E
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 $ B$ R( p; c% W7 U+ |
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
8 B" s/ V" R, @1 v" R, V对当前的底部、影响有限。
! Y0 W! `6 D3 Z a1 l y& @最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 U) v1 h# o* ]8 O
所以27000、即是 7 }! a6 B( i5 F5 d
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） " K2 J$ w( Z' t$ Z5 R2 Y$ b
同时还是去年放水初期低点、 1 e6 `7 \3 u9 K, s
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 ! A% @) S, \6 M+ m
由此得出的结论是、
9 i0 d8 y" A. M5 k7 f# v加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 4 U, Y4 v9 [* E, \; R
点位不会出现太大偏离。 ]. w. Y& ^ I/ P! t
综合以上、 0 @% Q) ]7 D( I9 J
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 6 I; R6 C" Q$ l ~
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 - |: n f' k9 }
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
. ~) w$ K2 ^* j- E0 Q5 ^抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
5 ?' A f7 @0 X) t$ d那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
! v3 _. p: Y ?0 ?/ c即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
- Y D1 k1 y1 \) r: M8 k美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
3 s! e8 ^/ s6 T" A% p; ^夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
1 W j K. Z: F- E4 O# L+ Y! x大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
J6 S$ `) e1 `) A: P1 Z8 J8 N+ f4 m+ I# O逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
h$ F7 D6 V- i- w' O, C0 l7 E高空需至31700-32000间布局、 ) m" n8 e+ t3 E, n& [2 a
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 . K- u5 K) U$ o% ]9 ]* q! ?
得不偿失。 2 N. Y5 d: L. x7 h7 U) _
来源：金色财经 |
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