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# h2 m$ t2 }3 y3 I3 ~2 m" r1 {/ O W加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为" n8 y! v1 P% [' g! Y
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，" w6 E6 [* Q f( K, `
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。
: J/ T0 u+ m4 \0 r% D9 i. n一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
. P2 ]' F6 u7 U( }" Z, q: j& U1 vBTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。 I- N% L, T+ y. a, D: \, ~" _
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：0 t+ ^+ b4 E- E5 Y. g: [
2024年4月第四次减半0 @. V C* H O+ R
机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
8 r* f: _: M/ {5 Z! [6 w# a可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)7 d! }2 C4 I1 n$ n9 r( V
针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。! {5 m' G5 G4 V7 q5 l1 T7 s
二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务- Q/ U u. T( G0 o. L) n
friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。7 k1 j" d9 D7 _/ l4 i9 Q* h4 f
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠
8 v: |: @7 f% k3 Y; r1 _诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。; L6 {1 W. v5 y$ U @
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁) H. B* c& Y' t+ ~/ T' u! f9 C- C
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统, J2 I0 {# \0 W* i; x* r
金融(TradFi)产品。0 ]" {2 s+ L1 L6 t
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨
0 `. y; S$ N! R链桥」的项目。4 ]0 [% l0 U7 h
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
1 s- G, U. o. x模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
. m* g9 g" v& a. Z) m8 t等。
) F4 `( c1 i/ K( | R# vPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用
6 s3 s0 q7 v' d4 A在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
9 R( R" k1 ]9 [7 n" `五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN! Y0 a9 L0 ]5 `1 M
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位8 q9 Y& S. s# h9 K4 ^- G B" F
数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。, b1 F9 G6 M8 L+ X% X1 Q7 I$ N' {8 J
Pantera点名了几个项目：" r. H* L4 X. T' {$ T6 J$ g J7 B7 Z
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图
2 U/ g, d+ X8 J2 N' ~Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台
* d0 e$ c- d/ N0 zModulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
. V9 w- ]' V' z! ^% dThe Graph：链上知识图谱计划
. }3 I& w$ f2 ZRealmsverse：Starknet上的链游
' l. K$ B" U4 g0 ?六、小型公链需专注特定应用
* y2 E+ H; @- v6 yPantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
1 Z7 D4 o, l' [" ~$ p至能直接与L2竞争。0 L7 d, _) q' x) m
也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。- q+ c t" n, ?) y
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
1 i8 L6 V# y W成为「应用链」。- M7 r: b' E+ L
事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。0 r7 l4 ?7 v8 @( J; z$ T
$ K( p$ \ B+ U- @. p+ L% |1 |
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