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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
' i7 N3 g; o/ ]% q% B) B' N
3 _+ S' G. ^7 o6 ~ 平手中水,主队有利
! ~' |/ t+ d' u' H6 X. I 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
) A9 p0 [2 W+ B' n. c6 \ 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
! }8 X) x' E5 |- A* k- q 英超主队( d0 F$ n3 k- K" x3 p
胜:13场 48%5 v7 I3 d: @8 S/ H) \
平:5场 17%' l6 v( J( A" f+ V. l* R
负:9场 35%, l9 v5 d. r! Q, v5 i% I/ N
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
! q. q: j' `. H! L! Y; b3 G " l3 D5 Q" m" p+ s
一、初盘阶段
% I8 A8 C; F* a; Q) t/ n1 e: j3 r 具体到水位如下:4 d$ N5 N3 H: o a6 R: g7 u. [; g
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负& J% X8 U# F+ ]2 D G& p- |
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
) h( I" ^. V3 h) j; z( M% U 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负! _ C0 k: [1 R A$ a3 ]# \
P2 H+ Y8 d5 d# o% ]& I+ U+ { 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。 k& b @0 e6 Z- H
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。! c# L7 V# b) j7 k G9 E6 }
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
+ \2 e( v& M2 k; h2 k 6 D2 f( f6 N- ?: S7 ]) K8 ? {. I) v
二、临场阶段4 v2 i6 D1 B2 X; s% T4 P
6 Z8 M+ M0 m; E1 W/ r, c" U 具体到变盘和水位如下:
/ Z9 s; p, m6 [% R0 n9 e, j/ M 临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
9 u4 |# x {& z' t2 q 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负/ j9 v c3 E! @6 h5 q9 i
# f, h4 A7 a+ A; E: R4 [ 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。0 t9 o/ B, g0 `* M0 k
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
8 |9 j6 I8 ~ n
, n. K8 |& h+ F$ N$ l2 N: K9 M 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿0 }9 N& d0 P7 u% }
初盘:0.82平手1.04
; w: [8 X, r2 p: _1 K( V 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85/ N$ F8 e" u: I, A7 j- R! a6 z& y
& X& r3 d U2 P7 i5 [. e* j 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆8 r+ z# F3 ~$ r5 E
初盘:0.76平手1.10
$ T3 ^* Y1 I4 G5 x% d! E5 K 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
% i2 d8 ^8 K+ t
# C/ i, P( R' q3 w 朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技0 W9 Y% C# k: [. q, v
初盘:0.82平手1.04
& k+ B9 y7 a$ G" J8 L4 m 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
& n( j5 e) X1 V! i9 l3 l) `+ y- t$ l - X B* g1 ^! r/ Q/ U
伯恩利2-1西汉姆
$ Z0 W0 O3 p) I7 m8 { 初盘:0.88平手0.98
* l) t s R: t 终盘:1.12平/半0.74
& g3 y0 G' V E9 e 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。* @+ B4 D1 |3 J; D! H3 Z- c
提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
5 F4 F$ d$ M+ A# y 提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
1 X# [3 |* }2 Y0 d* c* C! z! U
5 F4 H9 }8 f* u3 k 三、球队表现& v9 b) n* y# d- \! l+ Y- n _+ t1 r$ f4 c
9 T$ O' n* Q) I5 \" \' i( s 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
* h5 D* e8 f: c R
% O& @$ P" P2 i/ F( A" ^ 四、投注要点 s, @$ i7 i2 }7 O" x) `
要点1:平手中水、主多不败
- X, \7 J. ?8 ^! r/ z% z 要点2:平手降盘、走两头0 `" p8 [: O- t7 V' d, d: \
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
' i# C6 I9 X: I3 g4 K 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大! G9 o. C- c5 [" C6 G
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任9 N5 l# h9 g# f: A! |' W
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大4 M7 ~& ]8 w% G
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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