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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘) j9 ~# F1 v) K1 c3 A- ~, F
     
& f7 i* ?" p. L) O/ X     平手中水,主队有利
. o: S4 W. b% T8 n6 D     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
  B8 H8 z$ {! b; q3 i8 p- d" A5 E& Z     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:6 |) g1 N" Q6 C4 e
     英超主队3 X1 y/ M" k1 c5 q) x
     胜:13场 48%
5 P/ q; a, c8 w% V& r4 a. L9 o7 m     平:5场 17%. J: g1 I$ l! e4 [2 _
     负:9场 35%
2 L4 a6 |# i) T! r' z4 ^     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。: n/ b& ]9 G, K0 }+ h  _
     
: m# V, Y. x4 N3 p     一、初盘阶段
+ ?& T% _6 i. ^; Y% ~- [     具体到水位如下:
  q# X' R5 Y/ A9 Z: {4 ?     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
5 u- A* W& u9 Z     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
& Q. E7 |0 e+ ?8 s; R- i5 ?     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
$ c! j+ ]/ W8 w  j0 w/ h- r+ U+ P; B     
6 C  O9 F& \( y  m& m: ^* _+ M; K     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
* a" o6 F' N  B/ C$ H) Z8 H' f     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。9 p7 s. f! K, M
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。- \; C7 P3 R$ d2 |( H2 C
       c% _. }6 q* q$ P
     二、临场阶段
* C& G& v0 z9 s  k     
: }. \4 S- W( K/ d6 a* J" ~     具体到变盘和水位如下:9 c4 q! R3 N4 h$ v
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负( M* y% i- Y# T) I  l. W' S8 x
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负4 s6 L, {) O/ Z, W* S0 {
     
$ h9 e) M# v7 Y8 m. m4 `3 v# V     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。5 v. c9 V. v; F# u  Y" O, Y
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
3 P2 J, V' W7 A+ z7 U( _* v3 u     . o9 n2 C; E# Y: K
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿2 O( ?7 m6 h" ~5 J
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
7 Z( L" j$ P6 @0 |5 F1 v     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85( K# {. q  F* E  A& X2 ]' G* q2 K
     
7 a& B7 U5 P7 [3 H. W" l3 ?* T     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
3 U# \4 C, L# p  ]8 O" \! F     初盘:0.76平手1.103 A5 }+ e9 q" l3 G$ b1 Y) p" c
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
# a7 b/ x5 I, j. ~4 N/ {/ B     
5 @& A% I1 r4 T0 E     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
" {0 N, Q1 D5 a8 J- a     初盘:0.82平手1.04
7 r& s. g1 k3 }4 S% H& ^     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98( M) ]2 f# h2 z5 \
     " X' @* _# [7 C/ I6 _1 n" y
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆* K2 b. M, Y7 y2 M* S2 B& g2 |, P
     初盘:0.88平手0.98+ [  \8 m* Y) J( O% M
     终盘:1.12平/半0.74, J( ]1 o2 J6 B8 X
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。; [3 h1 @( i2 @6 G# B# b# T' d
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。: L- g5 s% _' w$ Z, l0 m
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。: Q" j% h& ~3 d. w. _0 P9 K+ h
     ) K) O# z4 h% |8 c/ d" ?
     三、球队表现0 b+ D1 `/ R1 V: B% v; |. h
     5 p% A: r2 M* [0 j) G
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。& C5 l, t. X- ?  F6 e  C9 O
     
: [8 W6 A8 N3 h6 d# Z) A% G     四、投注要点
; d* Z, g9 ~5 y     要点1:平手中水、主多不败! y4 A; I- B4 J/ D( R0 k
     要点2:平手降盘、走两头0 s: F7 E( W& W& n9 D- h! {* ~1 A" P
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
+ g6 `! _- _3 a) P) T- W     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
2 {) J' c! J0 \1 {) _2 `. y4 K     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
8 S" j) L6 `' [     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
* t, f% h' z/ K5 T1 G. U     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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