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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。
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3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。
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: N% i. v" p7 m g! Y% i 比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续8 ^3 L# b, [# N' o5 G$ a7 Q) J7 E
' @4 l" \8 |- K9 |) y9 e. O) T2 o0 i Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。7 U/ X6 S9 Q0 S) b0 F4 v1 [0 ~
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尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。; b& v" N# t: x9 P, E7 x
, `5 K3 c; q; G1 h' ~ 市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。7 g; J2 z9 |0 r4 a& x7 k
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' H X" m, x( d 针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。+ f! g4 {, P, {" v# l; g8 a: ^* B
0 @4 K8 b* o: z% s: L6 a$ u 知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，" X: | w) N B4 s( C
9 _& F0 l4 n5 B价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。8 F* H* c+ _! p) ]0 z+ _; i6 \" k5 ]
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“从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间5 ^/ o* j, n6 [2 }9 k+ ?( b, m7 k
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”8 ?3 q' y( k% D
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知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。: V: I' Q1 l# q5 ]$ V1 G9 B7 T3 a
$ X6 o0 z, c1 l. h* m7 v- o “$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在/ M7 N6 p4 t$ e# T0 c' D
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积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”
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7 `" j: M) t: ~# }# b 早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。
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' L$ U8 h, M7 f 与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。
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; J! L& g3 e) m! e5 A+ M( B. q" W 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势 Z) o' y3 }4 a8 O+ j, \
0 u: H2 v2 k2 Z, T- \& n: { 当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。
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监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。. P+ w% z0 v* ?. T8 h2 d
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该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，' n# u+ c) q5 {9 x, Q- A( n& G4 R. r
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市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”7 U$ p3 l+ d9 F& x# H7 p. g* U
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