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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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% `2 ~! g x/ ]1 q 比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。
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3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。# I- E! r2 u T
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* I6 ^2 d0 f" i& a# G( N! l V 比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续" B* x. @ B) N# V
: Y, n. L7 a% H4 Q' l$ e& R Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。
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' t1 a' l) O5 {6 q 尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。9 G; [3 U3 g4 A3 A' L8 Z0 b
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市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。
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) s- V2 D- h' H% R 针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。" {- X( v2 o1 d9 X
3 B5 @/ R9 Q t0 t9 x3 t9 x5 U$ ^ 知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，
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$ [4 }, H3 E" e) U, u$ z价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。+ Y7 a! H l! i
7 P8 T# Q) i% J5 |+ ^) L% F9 Q “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间
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# | ^) e: p {4 G! J. \框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”
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8 N: p, I( f2 _1 ` 知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。
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5 N, ?' g1 K" ~9 W “$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在
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积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”
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1 k# f# V! Z' m" {2 x" \ P5 c 早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。
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% j; @' z* ~+ b. ? 与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。
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% M J3 y! o. z7 G0 d* k 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势
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当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。
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/ O+ q) J, I, \ 监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。
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. `# ]8 |/ @4 X1 @5 w 该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，# T/ }* N4 t3 Q$ r+ E) r G
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市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”$ L& A1 U; L! x4 e1 g
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