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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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, J3 T* O L: \瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
" T# F! K0 R- z! j, v" f* t/ x2 Y: D) s% N6 T# m: \& v2 Y/ e
衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”; c$ Q9 C6 M. s" {" r# @5 A o
美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金1 t5 L- g7 a; S3 t F/ V
+ W- q1 C; a: c2 p/ m融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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5 G. F6 A# n, m* _. v3 ~, _/ Z过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益; \, Z d* j" Z% n! s
- D0 O A- Z% j, D9 K q! B/ F率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。9 q/ R* B/ c* Q; `) h4 B6 n
, [+ P( O0 H+ G% F- ~然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国( q* p5 i9 ?5 a/ c6 h7 g
! o W- Y' |, g! o长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更1 G" w9 n( c3 q% ^9 r( K" C1 J' E
9 H/ Y: G" W* _/ O! R. n是表示：
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币/ [' K4 I/ s: i+ ]# T0 J7 W
3 T6 z* K6 l r. u特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
2 [' S+ ]4 b/ G8 d( ^0 J) i9 u- M" s/ l+ i( Z
标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：! h6 s+ z) {4 h
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周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。: ?4 t- v g! W, }, m
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周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。% H: { @& _. t" F' C( c
5 z# t2 e/ f, h+ @6 I! F周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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( K7 w, R+ {! k) t收益率冲高回落。5 j0 T) o _6 r" k
9 r/ ~* h2 d+ N1 u, g3 ?% n; `周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。+ f0 r5 U; z* `2 c5 D
: _. M1 U& W) D0 [" T周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，
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1 E2 k/ g, k5 l- \+ K是的，这正是我们所看到的。"
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! r+ G2 G: x5 H) }8 I. H根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。8 G3 n8 y: h( r Q- E' S
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; q) M0 a) X- p+ ^+ j8 j7 b1 ARenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"* T& {! t4 h0 f! F
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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