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[lastpost] => 2764276 加密老妈发话：L2如果太中心化，就逃不开监管 1757866956 天策-瑶娥
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。& x/ q! [1 m5 g' A
4 ?' c7 h" S! Z9 {) T/ Y瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
! x! ~5 p2 Z- ?0 n" M美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金' X0 G0 ]$ w( ^
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。( Q0 Y$ T, {5 u& [5 T
i7 b3 f; k" B5 p过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益
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率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。
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2 `+ J V; u$ v0 S然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国+ K. L3 ], K% Z" e
" ?# I6 a- u" N. s* m长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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# f4 F' [; _2 X3 I, S% }是表示：
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币0 p) ]( @3 u( }7 s
+ q3 @/ N4 r$ \3 j特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：: Z4 ?4 h }2 P$ x- D) e
7 D* F- F" o* a3 c; `- ?周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。) u& x: v, m6 x$ y1 R
. s! l, C( e' K* v+ H* u( q周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。* j- _$ O- ~ j% G* A3 q1 l2 D" o
- y% r: J+ A+ R) r3 D; C& m周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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$ i9 Q R2 q2 e/ x9 D% f/ a2 J收益率冲高回落。2 c. d' y/ h$ c5 n3 b
: X% z* |5 H# T5 F周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。1 q$ v5 z, _2 |4 m9 P) z: q7 `
; V9 E: _. @1 U- \* G" I周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。0 u v( k4 w/ N7 G& d
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& V9 y% r/ K9 ?, B" ]Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，+ w' [4 [- J, |8 H( J
1 b6 P7 F" s4 i8 J8 S: [) e0 b$ m% \是的，这正是我们所看到的。"& Q2 t4 u/ Q! n q
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根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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' h2 K+ G1 }5 c: b年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。* R- P4 ]* h) ^
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3 }3 t0 \. G1 B5 u: `6 KRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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