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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
& j# H+ P0 ?4 T2 n6 P2 M* J9 \( H/ ]( N; x
$ D4 J% h* c. V西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率. m: I' n4 t c' D
4 ]- L# a: y2 Q2 z
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:* I' B' H4 ~% p
8 y! U) o- I# r+ ]
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
* X, R, y# v# U. i7 q+ M6 L' b" E P& |7 g. C# O! J
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)3 {/ @# U* m: g( x1 g
& x* j' y0 H5 ^3 l% F! K4 S
- f! ~8 K* B4 C; E: F- x4 A以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?$ m3 v+ y6 e2 s. d" P8 g7 a0 Y7 F
$ L. | {( {* a+ E, b' F7 Z
5 E/ J; y7 Q) [& W盈利可能性
5 a/ H% R5 [4 S% L% }) t2 y$ n+ p: u( c! j9 D1 y
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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9 b. A8 ?8 [2 l0 r增值" X' p1 F7 a# B5 O9 T8 `+ Z2 }
+ x5 i: E+ f x, M
许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。- O- V' g% W& L# g- ]
1 b: L% `4 C* B, i" m" B
你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?! ?! f+ \& p8 P) }- A
3 b- C+ I" \7 G5 w6 ea) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
/ Y- [ W x, W/ f6 z9 J
* t8 Q, ~, [8 h- K7 b1 L& h正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么6 @0 d& T. T" a4 @. M
: y9 b/ ~( \' t/ ^40%的机会你会收到150元的利润- `6 I2 ]* A2 K) W3 o& \
60%的机会你会一无所有
! [; [& o2 M) z9 I预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
9 i# k) ?! r c/ c8 j- r/ S由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
! i6 m3 \8 e6 Y' l
+ \! _$ y' J/ D8 r. [( r- y增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。& i* y* v" A4 X4 T& W6 j" Z) A: N
" X- e! r* ^9 `/ l: Z7 j基于增值的投注; P1 b5 V! C: Q/ Y9 B
* [+ N/ Q4 p0 o# i凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
! M+ ]9 ]- c z# p& B9 K* a3 u
A=博彩资金$ U; q; h; D. x# h V# M. u
P=获胜机会' K8 u# @$ D/ [
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
/ v @8 i( g$ O4 a, r5 J( q8 p5 V7 G, _4 n
首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。3 I, G8 j, S9 ?" }
& L% M% a/ O4 i+ J+ u好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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) r% j* m2 d( E( B# c8 W- V6 m2 YA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
" P( C& w, L' C2 F
+ D, |" ]* y0 w* }$ H: k8 VA=0
( T5 `- d+ ]0 i Z
: l9 ?" d7 S& _ S ^结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢3 F- }+ R* Y+ z! x5 t
( z9 {" g- _3 K0 ]5 t* h& s+ a6 E2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)1 D: f1 p, v8 W/ F6 h
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2): S, b) C6 f1 G5 \& J
. p- j9 x9 }, w- v& W
A=0.1
2 z) @! `3 R# a
9 H6 @9 p/ q% {$ N1 j' v* e结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去6 N; F0 e0 ?* C5 Z2 Q' ~# B( v: b
2 M0 b% u. D5 g3 Y$ |. y3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
4 U( [( m3 W m8 e+ z, M' b* [+ b L7 ?9 {4 O0 y8 z' w
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
/ b' i7 K, @% l: N2 e* H# U- q& C) h3 S! j9 a5 B
A= -0.2
+ ~8 U0 o" l5 ~7 a+ o6 h) l7 a7 d! E) @ E4 p
结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
! I1 H% t/ s4 }% y. v
6 @/ T4 j6 }+ {( ~第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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