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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

! u' f! I3 C$ U3 b* R0 _
賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
# z( v9 R$ O6 ^/ v10A23456789
' {5 W2 x9 c% ~3 v( M6 m1 ~* L( h1 w-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.159
. D4 I; T) T) y- T4 {2 ^, Z! N-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.146
7 [5 r" C4 P. g2 Q0 ?-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.133# L( E+ t6 l5 r: K
-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120
8 J# d4 H5 E/ r# p- w) p-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.108
, r% m# b5 w0 A+ n-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.0962 H5 `( l6 u- s
-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085
9 |9 e- U8 @. U5 _, t8 ?5 [-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074
$ g* E+ v' P  W3 z5 R# d0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064: H+ T7 U! C& t3 j6 l' Y
1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054) z* j9 N" D" ]$ q7 K% o
2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045+ C, I% k( G6 C& [% Q, j2 v
3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.036
, p9 B7 A" |- k4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028; d( J) {6 T- }) M4 u
5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.020
: y1 q4 `8 U9 G$ Z- U  r6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.0137 _" N' d1 d1 R% p* l. P; R( w1 N  W
7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007* h5 q" z4 Z! q8 Z8 U) g
8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001
. e+ H( A( ~  _& e9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.996
& T' b1 ~6 m1 k10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.992
- e$ d3 \8 q, _; x+ E11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988/ \3 @9 m' G% R7 b0 v9 H
12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.9858 T7 [& b. v0 s6 ~2 K. `
13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.982
# w( p3 F4 {; T  b2 i14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.980  h( A# t1 A) b! X& R; V
15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.979
% {. O, N; f% ^, m6 a' Q4 R16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.9799 S2 ^0 [4 Y0 J6 I# |
17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.979& W8 C) G8 P! G) _
18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.9797 f, Z% y' y6 _* m: w0 T. R
19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981+ x8 z% s$ W8 l; L3 A, ?& Y
20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.983
" `$ a) _+ ?- q' t3 p21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.986
  |! z4 n4 s/ H, Q$ j# S/ ]22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989
# |/ |( g4 m! N( l23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993
' E8 n; C6 m4 |0 ^1 P9 Y+ t24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.9976 E. h3 ~& X* ~; d6 m( M
25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002
6 Y7 E) ?  w0 L* [

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。


% Q* H) n( c' \3 r; J表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
4 X4 f1 P0 D( q; @* \* }# [10A23456789
( @  h: I% l- L+ f) ]. D0 x-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.095
+ C% S5 V0 p$ R; l3 n5 ?. j-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.082
) H# W* h- c  p- g-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.069& u2 N' M1 |3 d, U# Q, ?7 M6 Y
-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056
7 ]( U& j" W) J5 H-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.044
# t$ p8 I! Z! E% I2 _7 {  z-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.032' F) x, y8 n6 `1 I: I8 J; l/ u
-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021. p7 S- K# f- f8 Z& m* b
-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.010
$ a3 j& |# f6 h3 a( T. H00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000& S9 [& n) [4 F& \, Z# V) Y
1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010; n* b' y7 o& Q
2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.019/ E# d7 A7 T* r5 E
3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.028
; S7 m( U8 v% ]+ m1 T0 N& _( }4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036
" H( u* ]- X0 ?* [5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044
; l, T- j* l) @6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.051
8 H8 [: i9 h6 q$ h5 M& [7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.057- A2 W8 ]9 I& y8 q
8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063( @/ Y7 }5 |  i
9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.068
5 {2 q2 ]" L5 Z) y0 q10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072
8 t# V# O  e. F) N" ~( S4 {, [, v11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076
" E6 }) \$ x2 a1 O! G! D, G12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.079
6 l- L6 t$ O  ~+ K' @' B% |13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082$ G5 h9 g5 h+ s$ |  h: w+ s
14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084
7 X$ [& t& j, {$ x( ]15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.085
4 l% q0 \4 f3 G0 T2 ?16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085! S0 @8 Z/ N; Q: e" @$ K8 f
17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.0850 i' g  K  j1 P+ u  o# R
18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085
1 ~& o) n$ ~" v9 h19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083
6 w8 T1 B# v1 c& ~# }+ @. [0 S20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081% J/ r$ q/ p+ h0 C' y' i; s4 K
21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.078
  G- |8 D: d5 F8 w8 Z22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.075; H# A3 I) x& X5 G; G
23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.071
: ~$ ^0 c# d# e$ m) _24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067
, x( m% b% m! `0 Q2 k25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.0624 e  e( O7 f' j6 \. |, O

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。

3 w, G0 V2 x3 Z, I; F
押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類* y; ^) Z8 m, b6 {5 g3 x" m
10A23456789. _7 B, P6 C/ M
-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122
2 B3 v8 }/ W2 ^/ u: O4 c: g-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137! F8 {4 F) H7 w/ Z; R
-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.1529 x; T3 A- H/ P0 S# S# `
-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.166
6 P" k$ g7 d1 y: O7 A; R-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180
- L  e3 |8 `* w, M, l3 h-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.1935 M/ U( C" Y6 ?& E
-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.205
! O3 j# B/ z! N4 s% [  f; m-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.2178 D  W; m  N3 X# n% e& L, ?
0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228
6 `& c& t; D# s7 H+ r1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239
& _6 |% d! [! [9 ^, m5 X4 c2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.249! G  N9 I- l( {' @) [
3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.2585 M: M, y$ ~2 ]! r6 g
4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.2669 `' y4 o9 F4 Y+ P2 P
5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.274
% K) Z: W) O( u; J. `/ Q: v! n6 A6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281
4 h: c! v/ U; P  d7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287& d! u  k* R# W1 l4 L
8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.2934 S3 C+ G# G2 n3 b+ ?
9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298
) g- F# ]9 h  D# k8 E& T1 S. O* o* Q10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.302
, a+ w# _, e/ v) f  F4 t; H11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.306
; D+ j4 R* S) X- ?( U7 d12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308
2 W4 Q* T) G- u  r; s4 t# z13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.310
! z; u' k" Z: {* t5 i+ K14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311
# v' G" l- k/ j+ Q  V0 Y15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.3110 F7 ?' R9 h& v3 Q6 q
16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311
8 ]) N! s5 E1 m3 _" ^6 U$ x# D17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.310. T: p$ S( J' N! a, I
18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308
( P: p) K! K! e8 c& m  e; \19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.305
' g9 p8 T8 ~' W2 h5 v0 w6 E" q20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.3016 f0 M# b0 f( F6 f
21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297; o1 G5 U' ]3 j) E; `$ y5 s
22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292
! [2 }: o$ |6 e  g23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286& P" P/ A6 Y3 D- O; w8 |
24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.279! N* I3 q* E( c+ R# y
25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.2727 R8 S/ y; ]. ^4 B

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
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7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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