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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
, P9 R) P' Q5 H% l2 s- F+ Q* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c( c" F6 P% b1 K0 F9 f+ }& U
凯利指数的计算方法: ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k& f- S+ z- { O, F& b7 U
6 e* v) z( E" F! y1 y# B2 q
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)
, ^6 ?& w, d9 q$ c什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [+ w# I0 b, r0 }0 n
+ y. I0 R }' v. x/ J9 q& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h3 A8 B/ Y$ S2 C! [& k+ X
既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧!
m! _) M8 w5 D1 T+ f8 _# S* e7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s- A6 O% x, \* r; z# J. D0 V
做下算术了: 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
9 F! e1 i7 F. M0 _4 m' g; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d4 c' Y5 P, E0 W1 V9 G9 u& {% r
(1)SSP: 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
! ^* A3 G |; B
* F% `8 z; i+ q7 u(2)立博: 2.10 3.25 3.00
; w1 O" l0 x0 [7 s. l% S }, v$ Q1 j" }) H/ M: B/ ]- H/ ~ ^3 d- K
(3)威廉: 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t8 s+ g: C& @& `2 ^9 U; |
, l W, H& x- M W* ^0 C$ q. j. d
(4)易胜博:2.25 3.10 2.95 . s6 f$ I- ]3 B5 ?
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _" J5 ]4 [; b8 g. F8 l
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
. p6 _: `% [9 v5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c5 F" @% a5 T% U0 I8 N4 e& _
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
; S( a2 V6 X1 W, m- y7 \" J. U- y- j3 w3 G! x9 S
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 / z# Q: U$ g5 f, O0 A5 r
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s' u3 S5 C# k3 P) a
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 / }$ R# J' p: B1 P
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
% Z. e# C+ C0 ^1 Q: @S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \5 q6 R. B d: l! d; n
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
8 m) \7 \: Q' {6 O& N1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
3 \; o9 M) V6 o0 G& F3 W& U% y7 S0 p: ?( j' b3 c! D1 A( t
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l0 r( b% x# E$ p3 U
+ P- _ d# E2 R! k6 P5 P
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q; Y: E% W$ m$ G3 K1 Y
! b; i1 V5 ]) ]' P1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
$ s. H3 J/ [6 p) F4 `: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
0 X% u. ]0 V& }- f+ Q1 X) @S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T) I2 _" j% W- V* M W
9 P8 t/ r% W; p$ q$ |
类似的计算后,于是: # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j$ y+ R# B( s0 h( }5 R
+ R! A4 H# ]) \, p0 ?
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
S" E5 n1 _, l4 J# s4 Z7 ^
) d7 R' F2 i# J8 TS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
3 u0 ^- X5 f0 _3 W! N/ m; m' V% T, u, P% O
+ \) D; q @8 C& c' HS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
5 b8 G- A$ O' {6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a- q, ?2 h: {% T. z% V5 p
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
+ t+ j3 V5 c1 l/ p( |* X: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~: ]4 z! s. a% W0 x! T6 p( H
(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
# K2 w$ L) e, `2 v+ P* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
* S& D+ X! @+ Y6 W好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 1 m# h* b! g! [$ E/ x, v8 ^
) q( ], k9 L T& t
- d: ^4 J8 t3 } VB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 ) r, K$ H# v0 M' |: m2 }
2 x, S5 d$ G2 V _, G' t5 m. ^F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
8 u' Q! |1 | T2 w+ C
, l6 C0 v7 m& X于是: / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
! h( V, z5 Z* O( W5 A9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
6 k4 V- x" e5 b! ^8 bG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M$ s2 {! p3 U; w$ v. x+ c* P! Q
+ D$ n) P# X# M
5 w! x( ]/ J* B( z7 v. N5 GG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 ! m' i1 [9 O% {. N3 f9 O' T7 d
' `' w- E/ x" T0 C$ z7 C f) F( D
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
; j( j5 a+ ?4 R' K; s8 `! h9 j* h% Q3 _8 r3 Z6 e3 X
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \) Q' }+ G' \+ r- s
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i1 l( I8 s" w% m9 B
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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