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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
/ k7 C f7 z$ m* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
- _6 V2 |7 p: E; N* c6 X7 p* h凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
! [$ ]- Y! x# r: z1 ~) O, ~7 V: L
( j c9 S$ `) q- JG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)7 D8 C* w' P3 s! O3 I1 |0 R
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [8 M9 D, ~) j- p3 S* j8 @) W2 R9 h+ v& d
% R! V4 @2 h2 d! c. d9 R- z
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h1 Z- l8 x3 L2 Y3 m- S* u2 `
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ + v' {) n. ~% l9 X$ U* ?# [5 f F- _+ t' g
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
5 `" H2 |4 R7 ]0 r! w/ {$ D1 `- B做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `+ _/ o( X* ?& O: b+ J$ P8 l' i* _
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
, ^4 R( U" R4 a2 j/ P5 ^% y(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n' c7 X9 N' T% M9 X) c2 [& N
* w, N+ G$ c! n; n(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
' W+ U3 f5 c! v0 g7 T
5 z f2 U! p# J& r, a+ A(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t! Y3 M, G' J* T. F2 W/ H
+ T% E6 }4 ?& z7 H" ]% Q/ j
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 3 L% a' T! G. k( Y' b. |& a' Q
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
% b; y) |) s: p我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 5 M3 W) y6 G7 w4 q5 A0 ^( U
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c+ u+ u2 T9 J3 N, \+ C Z H1 j* p+ ?8 n
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
3 A! G# b5 p& c6 a' ^, \3 E
5 y Q$ {. ]2 ?$ ?: US2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 3 q3 N: d+ D( ]7 r5 N& s W
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s5 z; K" X9 f6 s' n
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
( e+ p, E6 |0 D0 _: a6 U4 c9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j7 c/ L4 y4 C2 z0 W; ]1 l
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \6 U- P& H+ S* f T2 Z H" R
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
# w' H4 m( j% q1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
, q* f$ U8 U! I8 J" l3 y
7 X$ N) U9 n) O, x. k% n1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
9 C9 F6 b3 v( V g4 z2 E' v( {. f
5 T& O* |; u. C; D1 w1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
/ ]0 }. c4 ]- _ S- ^' B# A% P4 Q. R
6 l* S' K1 T, h4 @- L1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 & G. i- x; u$ G- ]9 [. s
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r* i, I/ a/ ^! P/ @1 I2 f, I
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T3 B& B# S$ r: c2 J. B9 p' d) C0 Y( v
! Q( t; R3 H9 V3 f类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
6 R6 O; s' \+ U+ _3 k0 A9 W: ^- _! J* P2 i
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; 4 S9 M6 d1 `4 `& D
; l" j% c- q1 o" m+ xS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s0 g4 r( E# W5 s ^" l% q o8 q. N; T
; m' V% T, u, P% O5 R3 r/ ] e" @& K& v
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 7 K! m* r7 ^5 g2 K- Y/ C; m
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
% {! _* A3 Q( N0 Z2 _S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 4 k# u, D- }9 Z. H
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~9 M, e. c4 i _
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
& d( W3 G. g0 {, J, d* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \" y4 S: S. b u
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 " `% K. s; i$ g& Z: c! `# i
) q( ], k9 L T& t
5 Z7 Q8 F" O$ q0 ^! L2 H* {- XB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
7 @: d' Y) S: d
( k4 X$ d# t! k0 h2 TF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
1 h* q, K% y m7 z4 i) m( _ C% h: _. K: r1 U$ B
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
) G1 _2 D! a+ Y6 k: }( ~- S: J9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
- F r9 o) {. x, IG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
2 o$ d. B) n7 p+ B' h+ D$ n) P# X# M
" w# P6 c ^: _9 L$ `* T& y% c& w/ yG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 $ H7 I& T, L/ j0 P/ h
0 L( W- ^ ]0 g1 g2 Z5 X
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]4 s0 z- {6 q5 Y7 R- ^
( M: ?( S- S# j当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
7 b7 x- T( Y& o6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i0 p$ e& Y) ?! d' W& x4 E6 r: ^
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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