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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
/ o0 U# h& a+ j* ?8 w9 G* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
. u4 a; u* }6 k凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k/ ]# u* w0 \$ A
8 i5 g4 d6 O3 V' V0 Z8 ^% Y( }G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)) b) L3 d' L# m7 O. n' {
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [8 a1 I, z) s0 u
) |4 w* g! A5 n( [: ^& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h5 u0 u/ }' @1 m/ j) [
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
( u: K, ^3 t$ @- \7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s3 Z9 K. g1 o7 N2 c
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `+ A, ~) |) {- e: t
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
# d4 A" B" O9 O9 a' |2 u, f(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n% i9 ]3 \7 Q& E1 l4 E2 V/ q. {
) ~2 n O/ p5 Y(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
9 d+ |2 H2 a3 V* E1 M& F/ F' i( j
* f8 a6 O; l% C" d9 Q$ {0 {8 x(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t! o5 ?3 E: N4 F* i1 j5 d
% r$ |1 s5 ^5 U, M0 D5 e/ c" j
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
% Z6 g- G W3 X: W, y; S- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _) ]3 _) K2 l7 j; ?) {
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 ' V) F. }# ?# s5 G6 W0 d6 V, P
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
! S. k) @6 K4 r* ES1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 : e* V4 f2 F) {+ c# Q
& _6 |, p2 Z, P' J6 `
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
$ I7 P* S0 i: p% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s4 A6 C/ C$ v* Q3 X; \3 d
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 8 S3 R `7 r1 b. o+ U9 O
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
8 D3 i) b2 ?8 h6 p7 B* Z3 I8 OS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \$ r+ J0 v& B2 s2 m0 G8 D% n
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v: [/ u. A0 H* v
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 - t4 h& L7 k: e' k C7 j
1 U$ n# @9 _6 ^" {( ~1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
! L# k3 E V" V2 d2 [& i9 @! X( @
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q: e x! T7 U- N# S( J1 H. ^; t
4 K1 W% ]8 W1 ] c! h' i; A
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 ! _9 T0 l8 P: b/ X& K! q
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
; ?0 X' W. @' P" i: H+ @9 cS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
3 }8 e( i! E! ~# p8 H. }: u0 g4 g8 S
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
: k- R' @" u; t. t
3 f4 E3 q9 q/ DS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; & k/ T! }/ L; n- _6 c3 C: q& x
1 S' J6 l6 H% p" R
S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
+ J9 }5 \+ Z7 _& K6 c; \. B; m' V% T, u, P% O$ L9 C6 u0 O3 b/ K0 `- |
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
3 B8 t- c, U3 Q3 P; y6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
5 o' o" \! I8 H' j% l: n" lS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
* w" e. O- J4 j0 h! t. X0 h: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~' p, u# K. Y; I- f: u
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o" K* t7 q& T9 S- g& y
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
5 h+ a( G2 I+ s; W好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
( ^/ ?6 `6 i" F V/ F& ?: R6 c; A) q( ], k9 L T& t
) R# y( m/ N/ @' J' B1 } Y$ H* }B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
5 Q3 h& N) I. ?' ? V6 S, H5 c8 i) f' D. p2 ?4 Y
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 ' y& M8 N* q: t6 h! a
" \# l1 N, |$ M' a: B0 q/ }1 @于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
) I1 T9 M! T3 D9 `" R, a8 m9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
- y7 c/ s; K$ q/ {$ x$ SG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
/ D1 H2 C7 Y7 U# Y, t& Q+ D$ n) P# X# M
; U# z* _% p3 `. p4 R1 F2 pG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
% }/ E% \- C0 j6 ]( J1 L' g. p
- V2 t2 B/ [, m& q. @8 t3 rG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
5 r/ o- ~: p7 G* c+ r5 |
# N9 e- x+ [: d当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \0 @! c+ j+ ~7 n0 m& Z+ C9 S
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i& @9 r, O9 F# {, |
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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