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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
" { ]5 e- G/ c* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c- h3 f2 i3 v# U/ ], h2 K
凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
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G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
; i Y# `( j* o% C( U什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
7 ^+ M+ S: ^) x" a
# c* w, c) z2 x# d5 Z6 s6 W+ t0 o: h: l& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h4 f, J& J2 t% D$ n1 f3 @
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ & R- H) D. ^" }% [. G, K
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s$ I5 W/ l% r3 ~6 u( B5 n
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
9 S3 z9 j5 I/ E" F5 b2 L D; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
" C. B2 w8 R$ f( j(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
( s9 r9 T- L1 T9 [! {6 U6 q
9 \3 K& `% l8 y( n(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 : Z# c' h; _4 {" n$ z, c
. N$ @* k, j! v d. k: C' `(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
& K) M5 n. P: Y" c* _! C0 o$ K
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
* P; S' K- k# B e( f- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
( c( N M; @6 g4 y( | O6 P我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 : R" j' d0 W' N1 }& C, E' S
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c+ r- a' Q# Z/ C+ ~
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
9 ^& V) r6 L, n: B+ w) j/ p4 t$ k
6 d6 N% l+ l* \$ j( I7 hS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 ; H" |5 e/ e+ o7 ~! }9 c
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s' @: ^& {7 b6 p( r5 K ?
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 / `! i. G5 G, t0 m9 g- S1 E/ i& e
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j t: S+ f$ x3 F! j, e- @ S
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
3 P+ O# f3 @( ]. c8 j$ o& Y8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
" `: ^; W$ Q5 t* f1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
2 G- j2 c5 P9 I9 m
* s+ |2 O3 F& W% t U) t4 x4 B0 E1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l. E P% l& J0 l* Q* j. j; w% v
; ~$ z) w2 p/ A
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
9 J$ r8 O: W' N, i" X# ?- L/ c" ]3 u
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 : z3 p+ d, l6 f' L+ U
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
' O& Z# |4 i; T( v: bS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T* l: ~" D' K7 z" S# ?. v1 Z
) C9 L( Y+ ^8 j2 b1 J/ e
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
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S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; 1 R- p1 E1 ^) K" i
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S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
+ A" E8 d5 t3 \; m' V% T, u, P% O/ O* M/ W; E R3 o) q
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 8 m( ]8 J4 Q# Z( A: ~& S
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
2 ?! n" n9 p2 Z4 _0 P0 zS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 , ?3 D2 |" }4 j' f8 a7 P& d7 s: u
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~( r7 e4 m1 p( @# j; l p
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
1 x' t9 y! l7 `0 {* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
4 i5 v2 a+ L; i* Q2 `+ r" }好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 0 d1 \* O0 T% C+ |! X
) q( ], k9 L T& t7 z/ Q l; L) s9 C1 l1 o$ ~% H
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 , h/ U! P1 ~" a
/ P0 l& f# z: _7 a1 u& T! w
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 . h% j3 e) u" U
+ Y6 b# j% |8 m- [, Y' _2 V* b
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
8 h! U" Q& L; L9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
7 v" H8 Y4 |' q( _( M6 l% \G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
$ A: t6 F# I! m2 o+ D$ n) P# X# M
% N% `! N8 F- y: }0 S" K. O' BG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
' e9 }' W2 c* u5 L. v V2 e2 ~ c. [5 Q# b
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
( J/ j( @- X6 q. a9 O- ?, e% W$ K# s# D
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
Y; v. t# Z) U( t1 J1 G; \' x6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i. H: y) w/ ?9 n8 B7 v
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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