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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑8 A" R5 T/ W/ |4 B9 C- } r7 G! P
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凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k! s: g ]: q# C- H
3 e; w( e3 |" I+ ^G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)0 P) h& ]5 ^3 X! T: P3 G
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
, E) T# J5 J, M7 N2 r* V: N, @& q1 j5 Q1 D! r7 E
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
. O0 h- B, S C i+ f% W" ?既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
2 X3 ]9 y( j& ]4 j7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s2 k S- |4 L. t7 f* V: R [
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `) b, ^, e9 t( k( X! a
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
( e/ N$ |# S: m3 L( M(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
+ D, \" b5 l; y: R
3 N! A4 R) x: a( B1 F% j0 E+ s(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
& Y, e' f% U" f5 @% g/ S# u i/ T2 T3 u) [
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t1 |! P% H* y) e# J, U
5 Z8 X+ ~- y9 y0 I8 L1 O(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
6 O1 @# R' T* v5 Y9 {- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
( L# U4 b% i% P5 @$ l/ p& q我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 / ^% T' [. t9 e7 ?0 z5 e4 ~
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c0 Y: m8 w2 W& }1 X2 f
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
( Y& H9 O4 y. I( R/ t6 h% k
6 Q$ z) U7 d- i6 c: j$ B+ p' }. [. BS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 $ c' y0 Y+ g6 ^1 ]! ~" q
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s- U+ m0 z9 w' |2 n. R
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 % I5 \1 {; k9 M% j. v1 W
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
$ M$ i' ^& P5 c+ FS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
4 W8 d f8 Q7 H8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
+ b8 m+ [. o9 O! q2 L1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
2 N% W* i9 |+ l7 s1 k0 P9 y$ G) K" V' x4 n
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
. b: p( z2 r& _% j, Z' J" o$ w4 G/ r* e0 h. v- C& r; }7 t
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q$ R$ S8 X! u# ~- ~3 u5 r
, r j3 G) f4 P0 ?$ k: a
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
( F ]2 G9 K( k- [) s8 k5 U: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
( `3 n' G/ M$ e9 fS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
0 f1 ^: q# z5 X& w g6 e8 f5 c! o3 M# u$ t5 Y A# N/ t7 H
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
& i2 g! b. Q: E& I8 V2 p; W, M; ?6 x# h+ i
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; 9 s& Z1 q. M- h; |' ^, D/ W2 t
! F, e" K, X: z' m$ QS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
( G: y4 a2 v/ Y; m' V% T, u, P% O/ W- t3 R" J' j1 c( |
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
) M" V" w: O! Z' a# I0 d/ v& F( z" ~1 s6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a+ t d. F t3 h5 t! H8 E) r; D
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 ; r0 e- I0 |. r) ^9 s) z
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~1 X# ^" w$ z; T4 Q0 _: c' f# _9 x
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
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好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 * l. v7 i# B v$ T! o9 g& V
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B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 , M4 [7 R8 M0 ~7 K# [: \+ d
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F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
9 Y! v0 }3 z+ q, j+ {. S) ^) g! Q1 J6 E7 h+ _# [
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?* e6 Z1 y" ?, E& Z8 ], w
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {6 A' w+ K0 r- b
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
+ ^, J3 g7 K. a5 L& L+ D$ n) P# X# M" i8 R" Y0 S0 O7 A* V. T. Y
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 + Q1 ^1 W2 ?6 P( t0 M
% F8 E3 W% k) `7 eG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
1 _* u: F; q* a8 T8 m
l9 E5 O8 F- n+ ?8 o+ {当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \" l! i. C* j1 u! L! T' s' y+ c
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i5 _& F) T3 v3 B3 U; j* \! t9 i. A
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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